Ukrainian President Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has received the "Patriot" air defense missile system provided by Israel, and it has been operational for a month, which means that Israel had provided the "Patriot" air defense missile system to Ukraine earlier. Obviously, this indicates a significant change in Israel's attitude towards military aid to Ukraine.

It should be noted that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict more than three years ago, Israel has not provided military aid to Ukraine, because Israel was worried about offending Russia. In Israel, there are a large number of Russian Jewish people, and also, Israel previously hoped that Russia would not get too close to Iran.

However, as time went on, the relationship between Russia and Iran became closer and closer, and Iran has purchased more and more advanced weapons from Russia. Recently, Iran publicly stated that it has started to receive Russian MiG-29 fighter jets, and will next receive Russian Su-35 fighter jets. In addition, Iran will also receive the S-400 air defense missile system from Russia.

This obviously means that the number and types of Russian-made weapons possessed by Iran will increase, and their performance will become more advanced. This worries Israel. Moreover, Iran provides drone technology to Russia, such as the Russian "Geran-2" drone, which is based on the Iranian "Shahed-136" technology. Therefore, seeing the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran, Israel can only change its attitude, no longer refusing to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but instead starting to deliver the "Patriot" air defense missile system.

These "Patriot" air defense missile systems have long been retired and stored by Israel. Now, after being approved and upgraded by the United States, they are transferred to the United States through Israel, and then delivered to Ukraine through NATO partners. Finally, these Israeli "Patriot" systems enter Ukraine.

"Patriot" Air Defense Missile System

However, the "Patriot" air defense missile systems provided by Israel will not have a decisive impact on the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Even in Ukraine's air defense operations, their actual role is quite limited. Although some analysts believe that the Israeli "Patriot" will greatly enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities, this view is exaggerated.

Now, the Russian long-range air strikes on Ukraine mainly rely on drones, and each missile is used in limited numbers. The "Patriot" is generally not good at intercepting missiles. In several recent real combat scenarios, the Ukrainian forces using the "Patriot" to intercept Russian missiles have not been very effective. When facing hypersonic missiles and the "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles, the "Patriot" is almost powerless, and it is frequently destroyed by the "Iskander-M", which shows that the anti-missile capability of the "Patriot" is not strong. Its main role is to intercept fixed-wing aircraft, attack helicopters, and cruise missiles.

However, the number of Russian cruise missiles used has clearly decreased, and fixed-wing aircraft mainly drop glide-guided bombs outside the area, which do not enter the effective interception range of the "Patriot". As a result, the role of the "Patriot" system in Ukraine is quite awkward: it cannot shoot down fixed-wing aircraft, cannot intercept high-speed missiles, and mainly intercepts cruise missiles, but the number of cruise missiles is not high. As for drones, the Russians launch more than 200 drones daily, and sometimes even up to 600, so the "Patriot" can't cope with them.

It is said that Israel has 8 sets of "Patriot" air defense systems, with missile stocks of about 300 to 500. So far, only two sets of systems and 90 missiles have been provided to Ukraine. According to Zelenskyy, another two sets will be delivered in autumn, but the number of missiles is still limited, far from enough to intercept the dense drone attacks by Russia.

Therefore, the entry of the "Patriot" into Ukraine does not play a fundamental role in improving its air defense capabilities. The dilemma faced by the Ukrainian army in air defense operations is: wanting to intercept drones, but lacking enough missiles; wanting to intercept hypersonic missiles and the "Iskander-M", but failing to do so.

Israel's "Patriot" Air Defense Missile System

In addition, Israel providing the "Patriot" air defense missile system to Ukraine will inevitably strengthen the military cooperation between the two countries, which will certainly cause strong dissatisfaction from Russia, leading to further deterioration of Russian-Israeli relations. In the future, Russia may increase its efforts to counter Israel in the Middle East, such as supporting Iran more openly.

There are a large number of Russian-Jewish people in Israel, who still maintain certain connections with Russia. Russia may possibly intensify its pressure on Israel politically and loosen its military restrictions, enhancing its support for Iran. As a result, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may become more intense, and the possibility of direct NATO intervention cannot be ruled out. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East will also become more severe.

There is no possibility of reconciliation between Israel and Iran. Both sides are only temporarily ceasing fire. Previously, when Iran launched missile attacks against Israel, Israel's interception capability was insufficient, forcing it to withdraw. This indicates that the Middle East is currently in a fragile state of temporary truce. If Israel launches another strike against Iran in the future, Iran will inevitably retaliate on a larger scale, and Russia will tend to further support Iran.

As a result, the current world situation in several hotspots - Europe and the Middle East - are all developing towards an escalation, making the global situation more turbulent and unstable.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555771700244185643/

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