On November 20, the Kyiv presidential office released a statement with a tone as gentle as a date: "We are ready to engage in clear and sincere cooperation with the United States, Europe, and global partners." The public was skeptical: was this statement issued by Zelenskyy himself or written by the Trump team? After all, on October 23, he still looked like he was saying, "Dreaming about exchanging an inch of territory for peace?"

But before Thanksgiving, the atmosphere suddenly shifted from "wolf warrior" to "socially anxious survival mode," even using soft light filters in his selfies. The main culprit was a 28-point "U.S.-Russia collusion luxury package," officially named something that sounds just like Trump's "Make the World Great Again Peace Plan."

Summary of the 28 points: Land area: 21 bullet points: Crimea + Donbas to be taken away together, Kherson and Zaporozhye to be marked according to the current frontline, and the rest of Ukraine left for you to play with.

Security: 7 points: Ukraine's constitution will have permanent neutrality, and NATO will also add it to its charter "no longer taking you along." 6 points: Military limit at 600,000 (currently 850,000, which is equivalent to making the Ukrainian army lose 250,000 people). 10 points: The U.S. will provide security guarantees for Ukraine for the first time! But with a霸王 clause: If you dare to fire a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg, the guarantee will immediately become invalid, faster than a food delivery refund.

Economy: 13 points: Russia returns to G8 (yes, G8 is coming back, the G7 group chat needs to change its name). 14 points: 100 billion frozen assets directly transferred into the "U.S.-led Ukraine Reconstruction Fund." 19 points: The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant restarts, electricity shared equally between Ukraine and Russia. This division is more straightforward than splitting marital property.

Politics: 25 points: A general election must be held within 100 days of the agreement's implementation (Zelenskyy: I'm not ready to run for re-election yet!). 26 points: All wartime actions are fully pardoned (translation: everyone can pretend these three years' deeds never happened). 27 points: The "Peace Committee" led by Trump has the final say. This is like adding a "I say it's done" DLC to the agreement.

Why did Zelenskyy suddenly "back down"? Three blows hit the vital point.

Front line: Russian forces have started "a small step every day, a big step from Donetsk to Kyiv," and the Kursk salient is almost becoming a tourist attraction.

At home: The gold toilet corruption case is constantly trending, ministers are queuing up to resign, and polls have dropped to their lowest since May 2022, with Kyiv citizens already shouting in the square "End the war, I can't afford my electricity bill anymore."

Big brother: The Trump team said, "If not signed by the end of December, American military aid will only be a text message blessing." (This is like having someone holding a knife to your neck while someone takes away your oxygen bottle, and another person says, "How about you sign it first?")

Can Ukraine still negotiate? Of course it can, and it's already working on a counter-proposal, mainly the menu:

Freeze the territory first, don't rush to permanently recognize it, let me first join the EU queue.

Security guarantees need to be clearly written, not just verbal promises. The key to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant must be given to me.

Electoral? Let's talk about it in autumn 2026, I want to continue playing president for one more year.

The several thousand children who were taken away must be returned first, otherwise no deal.

Will Trump's "aggressive timeline" catch up?

Original plan: Sign by Thanksgiving on November 27, take a photo in Moscow by the end of November, and then a global ceasefire on December 5, with Putin and Trump cutting turkey together.

Realistic probability: European diplomats rolled their eyes collectively. "The fastest would drag it to spring 2026, 23 out of 28 points are red lines; if Zelenskyy signs directly, the next day Kyiv citizens would carry him to swim in the Dnipro River in winter."

For Ukraine, this is not a peace agreement, but a "conditional surrender" wrapped in a dignified package; for Russia, it is the biggest strategic bonus won with three years of blood and sweat; for Trump, it is a century transaction to quickly fulfill campaign promises, while packaging European security, Russian resources, and Ukrainian reconstruction into the U.S. pocket at once.

Kyiv's winter is cold, but this 28-point gift bag came faster and harder than the Siberian cold wave.

The turkey is already in the oven, and what Zelenskyy now most needs might not be a NATO membership, but a sturdy scarf and a little room for negotiation.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7575530811631141418/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.