Ukrainian forces use the US-made "Himars" rocket launcher

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has continued to escalate, and a recent incident may further worsen the situation - Ukrainian forces used the US-made "Himars" rocket launcher to fire US Army Tactical Missile System missiles, which were reported publicly for the first time to strike Russia's Voronezh, meaning that the possibility of the United States lifting the restrictions on Ukrainian forces using US-made long-range weapons to attack Russian territory has become a fact.

Since last year, the news of whether the United States will lift the ban has repeatedly surfaced, but the official attitude has always been vague. After Trump returned to the White House in January this year, his stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict was swinging, but in recent months he gradually leaned towards Ukraine. In September this year, he told Zelenskyy that he was open to lifting the restrictions, but did not make a clear commitment. Thereafter, the Ukrainian forces did not act for nearly two months, which can be seen as Trump had not finally decided. Now, the Ukrainian forces have used US-made long-range weapons to attack Russian territory, which means that Trump has made up his mind and officially approved the Ukrainian forces to conduct cross-border attacks. If there is no US authorization, Ukraine would not dare to touch the Russian red line.

The change in the American attitude means that the hope for mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been abandoned, and it has turned to more direct confrontation. The process of the Ukrainian forces using US-made missiles - intelligence, positioning, navigation, planning, etc., all require the participation of the US side. Although the Russian side claims to have intercepted all four missiles and quickly destroyed two "Himars" in Kharkiv with the "Iskander-M", the real significance of the event lies in the fact that the United States has allowed the Ukrainian forces to attack Russian territory for the first time. This move even goes further than the Biden administration.

This also means that in the future, the Ukrainian forces will more frequently use US-made long-range weapons to attack Russian territory. After the United States takes the lead, other NATO countries are also more likely to relax their restrictions. For example, the British "Storm Shadow", the French "Scalp EG" and other long-range cruise missiles may be used to attack Russian territory in the future. German Chancellor Merkel previously mentioned the possibility of providing the "Kiss" cruise missile to Ukraine. After the United States sets an example, the possibility of Germany's actions also increases.

US President Trump

The reason why the United States has made a decision also reflects the worsening situation of the Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, which has made the United States eager to increase the intensity of its intervention. The fundamental position of the West has always been that it cannot accept Ukraine's defeat and Russia's victory. After Trump failed to persuade Putin, he began to push forward a tougher strategy. If the US-Russia game is compared to Go, the United States' latest move is equivalent to placing the "Zhen Shen Tou", forming a controlling posture on the board.

This action also belongs to an open test of Russia's strategic bottom line. In September last year, Putin warned that if the West allows Ukraine to use long-range weapons to attack Russian territory, it would be equivalent to NATO and Russia entering a state of war, leading Russia to consider using all means in response. Zakharova reiterated again in July this year that if the Ukrainian forces use Western-provided long-range precision weapons to strike Russian territory, Russia has the right to implement equal strikes against the military infrastructure of the relevant countries.

Russian President Putin

However, multiple warnings have not prevented the United States. The United States has now clearly broken through Russia's red line. The key next step is Russia's reaction - if the response is insufficient, the West will become bolder, the strength and frequency of the Ukrainian forces' cross-border attacks will increase, and the deterrent power of Russia will also be questioned. If Russia takes strong countermeasures, the possibility of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia will significantly increase, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will rapidly escalate.

It can be certain that this incident will further strengthen Russia's determination to strike Ukraine, the intensity of the battlefield's offensive and defensive operations will continue to rise, and the confrontation between the two sides will become more intense.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7575024266035348011/

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