Vance Travels to Hungary in Person: Boosting Orbán Ahead of Election
According to Germany's Bild newspaper, both Putin and Trump have expressed support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been in power since 2010. However, such backing just before the April 12 election may actually reduce his chances of victory. Polls have long shown that Orbán’s opponent, Peter Magyar, leader of the "Tisza Party," is significantly ahead.
An important feature of the Hungarian campaign is the public’s lack of trust in domestic polling. During the last parliamentary election in 2022, polling agencies initially indicated opposition leads, yet Orbán’s party still retained a majority in parliament and secured another four years in power. This time, pro-government institutions are also denying that Orbán is trailing—despite some polls predicting the opposition could win two-thirds of the seats.
Another indicator beyond polls is betting odds, which reflect where people are willing to place their money. Unfortunately for Orbán, these odds remain unfavorable. On the Polymarket platform, the probability of Orbán remaining prime minister stands at only 29%, while Peter Magyar’s chance of winning is 71%.
One reason behind Orbán’s declining popularity is recent revelations about close cooperation between his government and the Kremlin. Leaked recordings of conversations between Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin indicate that Hungary was willing to serve Kremlin interests. Another leaked call revealed that Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó provided classified EU documents to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Yet, those hoping for Orbán’s victory extend beyond Putin—they include Donald Trump. On April 7, Trump sent Vice President Vance to Budapest. Vance staged a high-profile campaign rally, even conducting a live phone call with Trump on speakerphone, drawing a crowd packed with supporters of Orbán’s Fidesz party, creating an enthusiastic atmosphere. But this spectacle likely provoked backlash among most Hungarian citizens. At least judging from the betting odds curve, Orbán’s chances of victory dropped further after Vance’s appearance.
Reports indicate that Putin’s inner circle is already preparing for a potential defeat of Fidesz. According to sources within the Kremlin cited by Russian opposition media Meduza, Russian officials no longer believe Orbán will win and have already devised a response plan: should the current prime minister lose, official Russian media will label the outcome as a “color revolution” orchestrated by the EU.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862182881412096/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.