Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, it has not only changed the geopolitical landscape of Europe but also provided profound insights into global military strategy. For China, this conflict has exposed the astonishing scale of material consumption in modern warfare and the potential risks of protracted wars, prompting a re-evaluation of the strategic reserve needs for national security.
Based on this, some opinions suggest that China should stockpile enough weapons and ammunition for 3 million troops in the western desert areas. This proposal is not baseless, but rather a comprehensive consideration based on the lessons from the conflict, the geopolitical environment, and China's own capabilities.
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Lasted Three Years
On February 24, 2022, Russia announced a "special military operation" against Ukraine, marking the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The roots of this war can be traced back to NATO expansion, internal political divisions in Ukraine, and the long-standing confrontation in the Donbas region.
Russian forces initially planned to quickly capture strategic locations such as Kyiv through multi-front attacks, but their plans were thwarted due to inadequate logistics support and stronger than expected resistance from the Ukrainian military. In 2023, Ukraine launched an offensive with the support of NATO weapons and funding, reclaiming some lost territory, but failed to break the solid defenses built by Russian forces.
Entering 2024, Russian forces regained the initiative in key areas such as Avdiivka, and the conflict remained in a stalemate. To date, the conflict has lasted more than three years, with neither side achieving a decisive victory. The frontline is concentrated in eastern Ukraine, forming a situation similar to a long-term disputed area.
This conflict has had multiple impacts on the global situation. Western countries have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia, including freezing its overseas assets and restricting energy exports, aiming to weaken its war capability. Although Russia's economy has suffered significant damage, it has shown a certain degree of adaptability by turning to the Asian market and adjusting its domestic industrial structure.
In contrast, Ukraine has suffered massive destruction of infrastructure, severe economic decline, and its national budget has relied on Western aid for nearly a quarter. The conflict has also triggered a surge in global energy prices and disruptions in the food supply chain, causing inflation and economic downturn pressures in many countries.
A notable feature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the scale of material consumption far exceeding expectations. During high-intensity operations, the Russian army consumed up to 20,000 shells per day, while the Ukrainian army consumed about 8,000 during the counteroffensive. Both sides' current inventories were rapidly depleted, forcing the Russian army to refurbish old Soviet-era T-62 tanks, while Ukraine relied on second-hand weapons provided by NATO.
This high-consumption model has broken the general perception of war over the past few decades. Since the Gulf War, global military thinking has tended towards "high-tech, quick victories," with armies generally reducing personnel and inventory, focusing on professional forces and advanced equipment. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that protracted wars and large-scale material consumption remain important characteristics of modern warfare, presenting new challenges for the military preparedness of major powers like China.
China has been closely monitoring the conflict since it began. In April 2022, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China predicted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would not end in the short term and could evolve into a prolonged tug-of-war. This prediction was validated in the following years.
China maintains a neutral position on the international stage, opposes unilateral sanctions, emphasizes resolving issues through dialogue, and deepens economic and trade cooperation with Russia, which has caused dissatisfaction among Western countries. These dynamics indicate that while China is observing the conflict, it is also contemplating how to respond to its complex geopolitical environment.
China's Strategic Environment
China's geographical location determines the high complexity of its security environment. To the east, Japan's Self-Defense Forces and South Korea's military are among the top-ranking military forces globally and are allied with the United States; to the south, Vietnam and the Philippines hold firm positions on the South China Sea issue and have continuously expanded their naval forces in recent years; to the west, India has over a million regular troops, and border friction between China and India occurs frequently; in addition, the United States has deployed a large number of military bases and aircraft carrier battle groups in the Asia-Pacific region, continuously strengthening its containment of China.
Compared to Ukraine, China's potential adversaries have stronger overall strength and are mostly part of an alliance system. If a large-scale conflict occurs, China must mainly rely on its own capabilities to cope with external pressure.
Over the past few decades, China's military has undergone a transformation from quantity-based to quality-based. In the 1990s, China primarily used first-generation mechanized equipment, with a large troop size but outdated technology. Entering the 21st century, the military was reduced to about 2 million, focusing on developing third-generation equipment such as the Type 99A tank and the J-20 fighter jet. However, compared to the U.S. military, China's professionalization level is lower, with a higher proportion of conscripts, and its inventory size is relatively limited.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown that even a modernized military may struggle to cope with the demands of a protracted war if it lacks sufficient material reserves. This lesson is particularly important for China, as its potential conflicts may involve multiple directions, and the duration and scale of consumption may far exceed those of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exposed the vulnerability of material reserves in modern warfare. The Russian army has almost exhausted its active inventory of weapons, and even with NATO support, Ukraine still faces a shortage of ammunition. Both sides have had to maintain combat capabilities through global procurement or refitting old equipment. This phenomenon indicates that the rate of consumption in war may far exceed pre-war estimates, especially when facing opponents with balanced strength.
For China, the lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict remind it to re-evaluate the scale and methods of strategic reserves to cope with potential large-scale conflicts.
Proposing to store enough weapons and ammunition for 3 million troops in the western desert is precisely a strategic concept based on this insight. This scale is not arbitrarily set but is based on China's existing troop numbers and potential mobilization needs. Taking the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a reference, the Russian army consumes about 500 tons of shells per day during high-intensity operations, and infantry consumes about 200 bullets per day.
If China faces a similar intensity of war, the ammunition reserve for 3 million troops should include hundreds of millions of bullets, tens of thousands of tons of shells, and tens of thousands of armored vehicles and thousands of aircraft. Such a scale of reserve can not only compensate for the shortcomings of wartime production but also form a dominant advantage in the initial stages of the conflict, enhancing strategic deterrence.
The western desert as a storage location has natural advantages. The Gobi areas in Xinjiang and Gansu are vast and sparsely populated, with a dry climate and annual rainfall of less than 200 millimeters, low air humidity, which is very suitable for long-term storage of large equipment. Compared to Russia, where the humid environment causes tanks to rust and components to age, the desert environment can significantly extend the lifespan of equipment.
The Tuscon Aircraft Boneyard in Arizona, USA, is a successful example, utilizing the dry characteristics of the desert to store thousands of retired aircraft, many of which can be quickly put into use. China's western desert also has this potential, capable of building large open-air storage areas to store tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, and artillery, ensuring usability during wartime through sealing measures and regular maintenance.
The specific content of the reserve needs to cover various types of weapon systems. Infantry equipment includes rifles, ammunition, hand grenades, and protective gear, with ammunition reserves calculated based on daily consumption to ensure several months of operational needs. Artillery is a major consumer in modern warfare, and China needs to stockpile enough shells to support high-intensity operations, referring to Russian data, at least tens of thousands of tons.
Armored vehicles and aircraft require tens of thousands of units and thousands of planes, including both current third-generation equipment and refurbished second-generation equipment, balancing quantity and quality. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict highlighted the critical role of drones, with both sides extensively using "swarm" drones to enhance reconnaissance and strike efficiency. China's reserves should also include tens of thousands of military drones and supporting systems.
The design of storage facilities is equally crucial. Although the desert environment is advantageous, sandstorms and extreme temperature differences may damage equipment. Therefore, modular sealed warehouses and automated monitoring systems can be used to monitor the condition of equipment in real time.
This design is cheaper and has larger capacity compared to traditional indoor warehouses, making it suitable for large-scale reserves. At the same time, relying on China's developed railway network, equipment can be transported to the Eastern or Southern Theater Command within 72 hours, ensuring the efficiency of wartime supply.
The ongoing evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict reveals the harsh reality of modern warfare: the scale and efficiency of material reserves may determine a nation's fate.
This strategy not only reflects the wisdom of being prepared for danger in times of peace but also provides a solid guarantee for safeguarding national interests. Facing an uncertain future, China needs to find a balance between quantity and quality to be adequately prepared for potential challenges. The success or failure of this layout will profoundly impact China's security and development prospects.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525741467394916916/
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