【Military Second Area】 Author: Feng Yu

According to a report by "Defense Asia" on September 22, Indonesian defense officials have once again clearly expressed the intention to purchase the Chinese J-10C fighter jet, and emphasized that this is the decision of the leadership, not just a technical discussion within the military.

As is well known, the J-10C has long been on Indonesia's shortlist, and it is occasionally mentioned by the media or officials, but there has always been no substantial action from Indonesia.

This time, however, seems a bit more promising.

Major General Frega, Director of the Indonesian Ministry of Defense Information, said that the Indonesian Air Force is studying the J-10C, because we hope to have a truly top-notch weapons platform to support the implementation of current policies.

This is not the main point. The key is that Frega pointed out that this strategic direction is not a sudden idea, but a policy established during the tenure of former Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, which is now continued by his successor, Saffri Jamsoedin. The goal is to deepen the modernization of Indonesia's three military branches while aligning the procurement strategy with the "Nusantara Trident Shield" strategic framework.

There are two key pieces of information here. First, this was decided by Prabowo, who is now the President of Indonesia and has close relations with China, having recently attended the military parade. As long as he continues to push for it, there is still a possibility. Second, aligning with Indonesia's strategic framework means that this is a matter at the strategic level, so it is unlikely to be just a joke.

(Foreign media report screenshot)

As for why it keeps changing, looking at the current state of the Indonesian Air Force can explain it.

As the largest country in Southeast Asia with the most islands, the Indonesian Air Force's defense mission is almost endless: they must protect international strategic waterways such as the Strait of Malacca, maintain presence in the Sulawesi Sea and around Papua, and also carry out disaster relief and humanitarian missions.

However, their aircraft are far from up to the task.

The F-16 series remains the backbone, but most are old models from decades ago, with reduced service life and combat performance.

The Su-27 and Su-30 suffer from low availability due to the difficulty in obtaining Russian parts, often remaining grounded.

British and South Korean aircraft can perform training and light strikes, but are unable to take on air superiority tasks.

Moreover, due to the incomplete maintenance and support system of the Indonesian Air Force, even the already underperforming aircraft have severely insufficient sortie numbers, further weakening the combat capability of the Indonesian Air Force.

In this situation, the air force leadership has repeatedly called for modernization: they want advanced fifth-generation fighters to demonstrate future strength, but also urgently need cost-effective, quickly deliverable aircraft to maintain current air defense missions.

In short, the current state of the Indonesian Air Force is that the mission exceeds its capabilities, hence the gradual Indianization of their fighter procurement, eating what's in the bowl while eyeing the pot.

This is why they sometimes buy Rafale, sometimes Khan, and still keep hearing rumors about the J-10C.

(Prabowo attending the military parade)

In 2022, Indonesia announced the purchase of 42 Rafale aircraft, with a total value exceeding $10 billion.

Some outside observers initially interpreted this as Indonesia leaning towards the West, choosing a star model from the Western system.

However, this contract soon revealed problems.

Firstly, the delivery speed is slow. According to Dassault's production capacity, Indonesia will have to wait until 2026 to receive the first batch of aircraft, and it won't be until after 2030 to fully form combat capabilities.

For the next five to eight years, the Indonesian Air Force will still have to rely on outdated aircraft, which is far from the original goal of rapid modernization.

Secondly, the price is too high. The Rafale not only has a high unit price, but also expensive maintenance and ammunition, resulting in significant financial pressure over the long term.

More awkwardly, in this year's India-Pakistan air battle, Pakistan's J-10C shot down multiple Rafales.

After that, public opinion in Indonesia began to question the choice of spending money on Rafale.

Therefore, although the Rafale contract has been signed, doubts and shadows still exist. Even though French President Macron signed a new memorandum of understanding regarding Rafale aircraft during his visit to Indonesia this year, it does not mean that Indonesia will purchase more Rafales, since not a single one has been received yet, and they have been waiting for so long that the flowers have already withered.

(Rafale Fighter)

Aside from the Rafale, Indonesia has recently signed a real procurement contract, that is, with Turkey's KAAN fifth-generation fighter project.

This project came suddenly. According to the agreement, Indonesia plans to equip 48 KAAN aircraft in the future.

On paper, this is an ambitious fifth-generation fighter plan: stealth design, super cruise, sensor fusion, electronic warfare systems, covering almost all characteristics of a fifth-generation fighter.

But the actual situation is completely different. This project itself is still in the early stage. Although the first flight was successful, the core engine relies on imports, and the true self-developed engine is still under development. The maturity of stealth coating, radar, and fire control systems has not been verified, and the mass production capability and delivery time are also remote.

For Indonesia, getting the first batch of aircraft is also remote, and before that, they will have to continue relying on the existing fleet.

Moreover, even if Turkey someday can produce in volume, the performance shortcomings are obvious.

Therefore, this project is more a political cooperation and symbolic participation. In other words, Indonesia is not aiming for the KAAN fighter itself, but for other political factors.

(Chinese Fighter)

Under these circumstances, the J-10C becomes a very realistic option for Indonesia.

Firstly, the J-10C can be delivered quickly, forming combat power within two or three years after signing the contract, filling the gap for the next five to eight years.

Secondly, it offers excellent cost-effectiveness, with a much lower unit price than the Rafale and KAAN, and the long-term maintenance and ammunition costs are also within Indonesia's affordability.

Certainly, the most important thing is performance. The J-10C can fully meet Indonesia's practical needs: active electronically scanned array radar, fly-by-wire, and long-range PL-15 missiles, placing it among the top fourth-and-a-half generation fighters, sufficient to maintain air superiority in Southeast Asia.

Additionally, China's supply chain is very reliable. When exporting equipment, China usually provides accompanying training and support, avoiding the awkward situation of being unable to find spare parts in the future, as might happen with Russian equipment.

Therefore, even though the contracts for the Rafale and KAAN have been signed, it does not mean that the J-10C is out of the picture. It still holds great strategic value for Indonesia — beyond expensive dreams and slow deliveries, Indonesia needs a realistic solution. And the J-10C from China can not only provide everything Indonesia needs, but do it better.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552754825470755355/

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