Will India Surpass China by 2060?
"India Surpassing China"—a new timeline for this prediction has emerged.
On the 5th, Indian media outlet *Business Standard* reported that according to the latest report released by the "Global Inequality Lab," India’s overall economy, measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), is expected to surpass China’s by 2060.
The report paints an optimistic picture for India, claiming that although India currently has a larger income gap than China and lower productivity growth, this very situation indicates enormous untapped potential.
Viewers might be laughing at this point. The "Global Inequality Lab" making these forecasts is not a United Nations body but rather affiliated with the Paris School of Economics.
Yet we must remember: this is not the first time Western institutions have used "India surpassing China" as a viral talking point. Every couple of years, some Western think tank or long-term outlook report emerges, confidently asserting that "India has tremendous development potential" and will "surpass China in a certain year." However, none of these predictions have ever come true.
This time, the Global Inequality Lab even sets the target year at 2060—a particularly clever choice, since by then, who will still recall this report? Whether the lab itself will still exist is uncertain, and even if proven wrong, no one will hold them accountable.
Additionally, due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Trump-era tariff policies, India's economy is currently facing its most severe challenges since the pandemic. Even Prime Minister Modi has urged citizens to cut down on gasoline and diesel purchases, reduce gold consumption, and limit overseas travel.
Thus, while the pie charts drawn by Western institutions for India may sound tempting, they cannot fill empty stomachs today. India still faces pressing issues such as energy shortages, currency volatility, and external shocks—challenges that require practical, grounded solutions.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867247308658823/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author