President Putin of Russia and President Trump of the United States

After a phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, Trump once again emphasized the issue of "ceasefire" in a high-profile manner. On the surface, this seems to be aimed at promoting the peace process, but in reality, Trump's move is not based on an impartial and objective stance, but rather on clear political calculations and practical considerations.

Currently, the battlefield situation is extremely unfavorable for Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is under pressure on multiple fronts, with its defenses constantly being breached, and the overall situation has fallen into a passive position. Faced with Ukraine's continuous retreat, Trump suddenly called for a ceasefire, which is clearly intended to help Ukraine gain breathing space to reorganize its military equipment and recover strength. In other words, Trump's move is not about seeking real peace, but about creating a window period for Ukraine to restructure its forces.

Soon after, the EU, the UK, and the Ukrainian government also followed suit, collectively calling for an "immediate ceasefire." It is worth noting that the ceasefire proposals they put forward all set the "current front lines" as the boundary. This means that once the ceasefire takes effect, Ukraine can retain its current positions while gaining time and space to restore its combat capability. Obviously, this proposal is very beneficial to Ukraine, but it offers almost no substantial benefits to Russia.

This series of political moves indicates that the so-called "ceasefire initiatives" by Western countries are not motivated by peaceful intentions, but rather by strategic considerations, aiming to delay Russian offensives and stabilize the Ukrainian situation. The intentions of the West are clear, and Russia will not be deceived by such superficial goodwill.

Facing the Western calls for a ceasefire, Russia has taken a firm stance. Foreign Minister Lavrov clearly stated that Russia will not agree to a ceasefire unless the core issues of the Ukraine-Russia conflict are fundamentally resolved.

This statement directly addresses the essence of the problem. Russia knows that the so-called ceasefire proposed by the West is merely intended to give Ukraine a buffer period when the battlefield situation is unfavorable, without addressing Russia's strategic concerns and security demands. If the root causes of the problem are not even acknowledged, how can there be true peace?

From the current situation, the Russian army has already gained a clear advantage on the front lines, with its offensive continuing to advance, and the resistance of the Ukrainian army is weakening. For Russia, this is an advantageous position formed after a long period of investment and consumption. Under these circumstances, if the war were to stop immediately according to the ceasefire conditions proposed by the West, it would be equivalent to abruptly ending the war just before a victory, not only failing to achieve the expected strategic results, but also potentially leading to a relapse into a passive situation.

Moreover, while the Western countries call for a ceasefire, they continue to discuss new rounds of sanctions against Russia. The EU and the UK continue to maintain a tough policy, and Ukraine continues to call for aid and military support. This "verbal peace and actual confrontation" approach undoubtedly further weakens the credibility of the ceasefire initiative.

The Russian Army

Therefore, Russia's refusal is not a matter of temper, but a clear strategic judgment. Without genuine concessions and guarantees, Russia will not accept any form of "pseudo-ceasefire."

In this context, Russia also mentioned the possibility of a second meeting between Putin and Trump. Lavrov pointed out that the time and place of the meeting are not important, the key is whether the consensus reached during the Alaska meeting can be implemented. If not, more dialogues are just formalities.

This statement again shows that Russia does not reject negotiations, but negotiations must produce substantive results. For Russia, what is truly important is not the number of meetings, but whether commitments can be fulfilled and whether the fundamental resolution of the issue can be promoted.

It is worth noting that Russia has clearly refused the participation of the EU and the UK in subsequent negotiations. Russia believes that these countries have never played a constructive role in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but instead have repeatedly exacerbated the confrontation. The EU and the UK not only support Ukraine militarily and economically, but also actively promote sanctions against Russia. Their position has long deviated from neutrality and they are not qualified to sit at the negotiation table.

Therefore, if the negotiations continue, it is likely to be a bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump. As for Ukraine, it has been seen as the "passive party in the situation," and in the great power game, it is more like a pawn on the table, not a true decision-maker.

U.S. President Trump

In summary, the Ukraine-Russia conflict is unlikely to end in the short term. Trump's ceasefire proposal is largely a political strategy, not a genuine peace initiative. Although the Western countries claim to act in the name of "humanitarianism" and "stabilizing the situation," their real intention is still to seek space for their own geopolitical interests.

Russia has always remained vigilant and restrained. It clearly knows that only when its core interests are protected and the root causes of the conflict are resolved can it really talk about a ceasefire.

It can be foreseen that in the short term, the Ukraine-Russia war will continue. Unless the West makes substantial concessions on key issues, this conflict will not subside, but may instead escalate into a prolonged confrontation on a larger scale. True peace is not just a verbal promise, but a balance of interests and reality. And this result is obviously still far away.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564298560573899327/

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