Text by Sanxuan

In preparation for Trump's arrival, the newly appointed Japanese female Prime Minister, Takahashi Hayato, has already been on high alert.

Next Monday, Trump will begin his first visit to Japan in his second term, which will last three days, after which he will go to South Korea to attend the APEC Summit.

It is well known that Trump likes beautiful women.

This is the first major test that Takahashi Hayato faces after taking office. It is well known that Trump is coming to "collect debts." The previous Ishikawa government had reached a $55 billion investment agreement with the United States, but the two sides have not yet agreed on the distribution of profits and the investment method.

Before stepping down, Ishikawa threw caution to the wind and refused to make concessions on core interests. Trump is not in a hurry, after all, Japan is about to hold an election, and he is confident in dealing with a new government that is not yet stable.

Perhaps for this reason, Akasawa Ryoji was able to remain as the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, becoming one of the few cabinet members who remained in both the Ishikawa and Takahashi governments. After all, he was in charge of the previous Japan-US negotiations.

Takahashi Hayato has a weak domestic base, so she can only seek breakthroughs in foreign affairs. Trump's visit to Japan is a good opportunity. If she can gain Trump's favor and support, even if the Liberal Democratic Party is a minority in both houses of the Diet, she can still stand firm to some extent.

Ishikawa is actually quite good.

Therefore, she has prepared a "visit gift package" for Trump early on, including buying American pickup trucks, soybeans, and liquefied natural gas, basically sending money.

Trump has long been upset about Japan not buying American pickup trucks. The reason is simple: America bought so many Japanese cars, but Japan didn't reciprocate by buying more American cars. There are almost no American cars on the streets of Japan.

Japan lacks energy, and its streets are narrow. American cars are fuel inefficient and large in size, which hit the key points of Japanese consumers, and thus they don't sell well.

This has also been an important issue in Japan-US trade negotiations. Two months ago, Trump proudly told reporters that Japan plans to buy "very nice" Ford pickup trucks, which is another outstanding achievement of the US government under his leadership.

The Ford pickup that Japan plans to buy

Now it seems that he wasn't bragging. Indeed, the gift package from Takahashi Hayato includes this item. However, it is unknown how Japan will sell the Ford pickups. Besides being modified into snowplows, there are no other feasible ways.

As for American soybeans, no matter how much Japan buys, it cannot fill the gap left by Chinese buyers leaving. It is worth noting that Japan now imports 70% of its soybean consumption from the United States. Even if the remaining 30% is filled, it would be a drop in the bucket for American farmers.

Similarly, Japan increasing its import of American natural gas cannot fundamentally solve the current crisis in the United States. The key is the $55 billion investment in the US.

Trump wants 90% of the profit, and ideally, Japan should directly fund it. However, the previous Ishikawa government advocated dividing the profits according to the proportion of each party's investment, with only a small portion being cash investment, while the rest was provided in the form of loans and guarantees.

Trump has a big appetite.

If Japan's requirements are followed, it is likely that the deal will not be implemented before Trump leaves office. In fact, not only Japan, but countries that have reached trade agreements with the United States also have this idea, that is, to first use massive investments to get lower tariffs, then drag it out until Trump leaves office.

However, Takahashi Hayato may not have enough skill to keep Trump satisfied. Her welcome gift may not meet his appetite either. This big test is destined to be full of difficulties.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564249682537415211/

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