According to a report by Asia Times on October 22, US President Trump is pressuring multiple Asian-Pacific and European allies to sign long-term energy procurement agreements, requiring countries such as Japan, Indonesia, and Australia to purchase US liquefied natural gas and fossil fuels, with contracts lasting for decades.

This policy is not market-driven, but rather a task assignment, aimed at forcing allies to sustain the US shale oil and gas industry, turning high-cost, high-risk US fossil fuel exports into a long-term burden for allies.

In essence, it is a form of national-level forced sales, attempting to pressure allies into taking over through political pressure, shifting economic risks, and forcibly binding an aging industrial chain's survival mechanism to the entire Western alliance system.

Trump

What is laughable is that during the process of forced sales, the US always mentions China, presenting an image that everyone should offer tributes to me, and I will help you deal with China. However, in reality, anti-China is not the goal, but just an excuse.

Trump does not believe that the US and the West can defeat China in new energy and industrial competition. He only needs the narrative itself.

In the field of new energy, China has formed a complete industrial chain from raw materials to manufacturing. In key sectors such as photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicles, and wind power equipment, its global market share far exceeds that of the US.

Under this reality, the US has already lost the foundation to compete directly with China in the green energy sector.

Trump is not trying to catch up now, but is strategically giving up, instead building a narrative of an anti-China front to make allies have the illusion that only by clinging to the US and purchasing American energy and equipment can they stand firm in geopolitical rivalry.

The more fear and confrontation this narrative creates, the more market the US energy has.

And this is no longer about beating China, but about continuing to implement institutionalized harvesting from allies.

American flag and Chinese flag

As for why the US must sell these fossil fuels, the answer is very simple: if it cannot sell them, it will collapse; if the selling price is too low, it will also collapse.

The shale oil and gas revolution did indeed make the US briefly become the world's largest natural gas exporter. But its industrial structure is essentially highly fragile: high exploration costs, short life cycles, low technical barriers, and high decline rates.

The output of a single shale gas well can decline by more than 70% within a year, and new wells must be continuously developed to maintain export volumes.

This means the entire industry must operate at a high speed, require high-intensity financing, and naturally need high-frequency sales, otherwise it will fall into a vicious cycle of debt traps and declining production capacity.

However, the domestic demand in the US is not sufficient to support such a massive production system. Therefore, the only way out is to use diplomatic and military leverage to assign tasks to other countries, forcing excess capacity and risks onto allies.

Therefore, we can see that Trump has always been promoting fossil fuels, making all sorts of anti-intellectual and foolish statements. This is not entirely due to conservative ideological positions.

To Trump, shale oil and gas are not only the hallmark industry of American manufacturing, but also the pillar supporting the economy, employment, and taxes in the central red states.

His voter base is deeply intertwined with the energy interest groups. Natural gas workers, oilfield contractors, and energy capital are his important supporters. Therefore, he would rather sacrifice future competitiveness to protect the current voting base and the capital market.

US petroleum

However, relying solely on forced sales and political binding cannot solve structural problems.

The cost of fossil energy is increasing, while the cost of new energy is decreasing. This trend is irreversible, and the global path of green transition is becoming clearer. Those who go against the tide will inevitably be marginalized.

An energy strategy based on military pressure and diplomatic extortion will ultimately be defeated by market laws and technological progress.

They buy your energy now, not necessarily because you are stronger, but because they are not yet ready.

Once breakthroughs are made in green energy, they will switch from an energy importer to an energy exporter, just like the US after the shale oil revolution. At that time, even if Trump is still in power, they may not want to buy your expensive energy anymore, even if you force them to do so.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564257434055885351/

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