[By Amar Ali Jan and Ammar Rashid, translated by Chen Jiarui]

In the past three weeks, a series of events in South Asia may have completely transformed the nature of warfare and signaled a significant shift in the strategic balance of power in South Asia and globally.

Pakistan and India, nuclear-armed rivals, narrowly avoided disaster after May 7: India launched missiles at nine different regions of Pakistan, resulting in at least 31 civilian deaths, including an 8-year-old child, marking one of the most dangerous escalations in their conflict in decades. On the same morning, the two countries also witnessed the largest aerial confrontation in history, involving 125 aircraft, with results carrying significant historical importance.

On May 8, India further escalated tensions by using Israeli-made "Harop" (Harop) suicide drones in multiple Pakistani cities, sparking nationwide anger. After Pakistan retaliated against Indian military facilities, air defense systems, and drones on May 10, leading to global powers intervening to mediate and establish a ceasefire, although direct military conflict has paused, the situation remains tense.

The immediate cause of the recent tensions was an attack in Pahagam in Indian-occupied Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, marking the deadliest terrorist attack in India since the 2008 Mumbai incident.

After the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, the issue of sharing resources of the Indus River remains unresolved. Photo source: Visual China

The Modi government rejected Pakistan's suggestion for an independent investigation and claimed it was time to act. The pro-Modi business elite-controlled Indian media vigorously promoted war rhetoric, with some even calling for turning Pakistan into another Gaza, exposing their genocidal intentions.

India's arrogance stems from its increasingly close strategic partnership with the United States over the past few years. In February this year, Modi met with Trump to finalize a new ten-year framework for "major defense, technology, and trade cooperation between the US and India in the 21st century."

The White House stated that this growing military cooperation is the result of "deep convergence of strategic interests between the US and India," which is actually a euphemism for the US containment strategy toward China, including transforming India into a regional balancing force.

This is part of Trump's post-NATO strategy to arm specific countries, making them regional police forces to counter anti-imperialist forces in their respective regions. This policy encourages regional conflicts and wars, representing a major setback for emerging economic and military cooperation in the Global South.

Although the US attempted to bring Pakistan into its camp, deepening US-India military cooperation could disrupt the traditional military balance between these two South Asian rivals, posing a serious threat to peace and stability in the region.

Worse still, the rise of Hindu nationalist far-right forces provides electoral impetus for India to take hostile actions against Pakistan. These two factors are key drivers for India's aggressive actions against Pakistan.

After India launched attacks on the night of May 7, the gap in conventional military strength caused widespread panic in Pakistan. However, everything that followed not only reshaped the military balance between these two neighboring countries but also possibly changed the global power balance in military technology between the West and the Global South.

The outcome of this conflict may have significant political, economic, and strategic impacts on Pakistan, China, South Asia, and the world.

A global conflict

This conflict is not only due to domestic pressure but also related to strategic fractures in the multipolar global pattern.

On one side is India, which has just signed new military, technological, and commercial cooperation agreements with the US and is equipped with French Rafale fighters and Israeli-made Harop drones, the latter deployed in the context of deepening military strategic cooperation with Israel.

On the other side is Pakistan, once a close military ally of the US for decades. Now more than 80% of Pakistan's defense equipment is purchased from China, such as the J-10CE fighter jets. Besides, Pakistan is also one of the key passages of China's Belt and Road Initiative.

So, what are the results of this conflict?

For the first time, the effectiveness of Chinese defense and aviation technology in actual combat has been verified, which can be hailed as the "Deepseek moment" for China's defense system. The Chinese-made J-10CE fighters and PL-15E missiles equipped by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down at least one, or possibly more, Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale fighters and Russian-made aircraft.

In modern history, this is the first time that the notion of Western defense technology being globally superior has been questioned. Although this event did not attract widespread public attention in Western society, it still caused a sensation within its defense and strategic circles.

Suspected debris of Indian Air Force's "Rafale" fighter jet captured in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region. Photo source: Social Media

The significance of the outcome of this conflict goes beyond the surface quality of Chinese aircraft and missiles; it also lies in the integration and networking of the Pakistani Air Force deployment system, showcasing the transformation of the nature of warfare in the 21st century.

Through networked combat systems and multi-domain coordinated operations, integrating Chinese-made aircraft, ground radar, and Swedish-made Saab-2000 early warning aircraft, precise target positioning was achieved, and enemy aircraft were shot down within tens of kilometers of Indian airspace using relay data links and guided satellite missiles.

The J-10CE fighter effectively employed electronic warfare tactics, including jammers and electronic countermeasures (ECM), disabling the radar and communication systems of the "Rafale" fighters before they could avoid or counterattack.

The events from May 7 to 10 showed who might have the advantage in all aspects of warfare in the 21st century. The most prominent display of this technological advantage was the J-10CE fighter jet, which has already been gradually retired from the People's Liberation Army Air Force this year and replaced by more advanced models.

This event not only changed the strategic balance in South Asia but also had profound global strategic implications.

For several decades after World War II, the United States and its NATO military alliance enjoyed unparalleled military superiority worldwide. The high prices of Western military aviation technologies from Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, Dassault, and others were expensive and strictly protected. It was precisely this military and aviation advantage that allowed the US and NATO to invade, occupy, and dismember Middle Eastern and Asian countries for decades.

Due to the inability to afford expensive Western aviation and air defense technologies and strategic limitations, small developing countries burdened with debt were unable to resist NATO's aerial strikes. Meanwhile, China's defense technology was belittled by Western "experts" as being of poor quality and untested.

The price of the J-10CE fighter jet is approximately $40 million, while the cost of each Rafale fighter purchased by India is as high as $288 million. Following this event, the possibility of obtaining high-quality Chinese defense technology at a fraction of the cost of Western expensive equipment may trigger significant adjustments worldwide.

The market and supply chain have already begun to adapt to this change. Since May 6, the stock price of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, which manufactures the J-10CE, has risen by more than 30%. Even countries like Indonesia have had to reassess their plans to purchase Rafale fighters from Dassault.

The potential of Chinese defense technology displayed during this brief conflict could change the single-polar international order and make it more democratic. For half a century, countless transgressions by the US, NATO, Israel, and other Western powers, particularly the brutal genocide in Gaza over the past two years, have already left the credibility of the single-polar international order in tatters.

Now, "Global South" nations can finally envision a multipolar world where countries can prioritize national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interests based on mutual respect and independence, without bowing to coercive strategies, diplomacy, finance, and trade arrangements backed by Western military hegemony.

Joint military exercises between the air forces of China and Pakistan

Moreover, the practical benefits brought by the Sino-Pakistani security and strategic partnership are evident, setting a solid example for South-South cooperation and helping to break free from the manipulation of imperialists over the global security and economic landscape, which is exactly what we urgently need.

In Pakistan, this conflict is seen as a victory for Pakistan and a victory for Sino-Pakistani cooperation. Various signs indicate that this battle has reshaped the military balance in South Asia, favoring Pakistan and China.

For a long time, China has been considered Pakistan's closest partner, or perhaps Pakistan's "iron buddy." In this conflict, China's strong diplomatic and military support for Pakistan in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity and countering its belligerent neighbor has greatly enhanced China's reputation in Pakistan, forming a sharp contrast with the unpredictable "partners" like the US.

However, Pakistan still faces significant short-term and long-term risks both domestically and internationally. The shadow of war continues to loom over Pakistan's eastern and western borders, and the threat of "sub-conventional warfare" by India and its proxies is rising, as evidenced by the violent attack on a school bus in Huzdar, Balochistan, on May 21.

India continues to threaten to cut off the flow of rivers from Kashmir to Pakistan, which would directly affect Pakistan's share of water resources stipulated in the Indus Waters Treaty.

Domestically, Pakistan is deeply entrenched in long-standing political polarization between the military and mass opposition parties. It also faces the danger of sliding further toward authoritarianism, militarization, elite monopolization, concentration of power, and institutional degradation of critical institutions such as the judiciary and election commission.

Since the ceasefire, Trump's encrypted currency transactions and F-16 maintenance plans with the current Pakistani government show that the US is trying to bind Pakistan under its strategic umbrella. This way, Pakistan's previous hard-won strategic and diplomatic achievements may go to waste.

Pakistani Parasitic Political Economy

This four-day conflict reignited public support for the current Pakistani regime. With Chinese technical support, the Pakistan Air Force has become a symbol of national unity.

However, for Pakistan to achieve sustained stability and economic prosperity, it must examine the severe historical fissures and parasitic political economy that have consistently undermined the country's political, economic, and social cohesion.

It should be noted that Pakistan's long-term alliance with the US has led to its economy being trapped in a vicious cycle of "rent dependency and aid survival," while hollowing out the foundation of its political system. Such a system is neither capable of maintaining national stability nor ensuring policy continuity.

The Afghan "jihad" against the Soviet Union in the 1980s caused massive changes in Pakistan's political economy. The growth of the economy during this decade was closely linked to the dollars flowing into Pakistan from the US to fund the Afghan "jihadi" fighters.

This policy made Pakistan increasingly dependent on geopolitical rents brought about by the US fostering regional proxy wars and embedded arms and militarization into society, replacing sustainable industrial policies with neoliberal policy frameworks imposed by the US, gradually weakening the state's ability to plan and regulate the economy.

After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, the US abandoned the region, and aid to Pakistan dried up. Without any structural reforms except for privatization and deregulation mandated by the International Monetary Fund, the economy stagnated in the 1990s.

It was this economic stagnation and dependence on foreign aid that prompted Pakistan, as a frontline state, to join the US-led war on terror. This decision resulted in at least 40,000 Pakistani civilians killed, numerous military operations, and drone strikes, especially having a huge impact on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, causing incalculable economic losses to the country.

However, Washington once again provided generous aid to Pakistan, using consumption bubbles to prop up the country's economy, creating another painful entanglement between blood and dollars.

Foreign aid, geopolitical rents, and proxy wars helped Pakistan's ruling elites avoid any meaningful internal reforms. Core issues of national politics, such as land reform, industrial policy, social development, and wealth distribution, are no longer on the agenda. Instead, elites continue to rely on rents and foreign aid to maintain their high-consumption lifestyles.

An UNDP report shows that Pakistan's elite class consumes $17.4 billion annually in rents and subsidies through privileges, a figure five times the welfare budget for the poorest social strata.

Street scene in Islamabad in March 2025. Photo source: Pakistani media

When the rents from war dried up, as happened after NATO withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, the cost of this parasitic system was transferred to ordinary people through austerity measures and high indirect taxes, pushing more than 40% of the population below the poverty line.

This short-term profit-seeking tendency also weakened the potential of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Although the project has made significant progress in transportation and power generation, Pakistan's domestic production capacity has not improved as expected.

This is because, in the absence of an industrial policy, Pakistan's ruling elites subcontracted contracts to cronies, promoting consumption-based growth, which exacerbated Pakistan's long-term debt problems. Additionally, the military repeatedly tried to control economic and political decision-making and gain related benefits, leading to continuous political instability and deadlock, hindering the advancement of many CPEC-related projects.

In the coastal areas of Balochistan, a key node of the CPEC, excessive use of violence, repeated destruction of representative political institutions, and the exacerbation of armed rebellion led by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) have occurred. This rebellion targets not only the Pakistani government and non-Baloch workers but also Chinese engineers and other experts.

Although Pakistan's claim that India supports the BLA is credible, the root cause of the rebellion lies in the province's long-term underdevelopment, lack of representative government, and large-scale suppression. Solving these issues is essential to find a lasting solution.

New and Old Dynamics

Pakistan's elites engaging in interest transfers have led to stagnant national economies, forcing them to seek economic support from the US and US-led international financial institutions. Their security considerations toward India have pushed them to cozy up to China. This indecisiveness reflects the lack of a sovereign development plan by the ruling class.

We see frequent short-term tactical moves, merely to address crises rather than formulate long-term strategic plans for the nation. Slow industrial development, stagnant productivity, low health and education indicators, malnutrition, and persistently high unemployment rates are consequences of such short-sighted behavior, prolonging the suffering of the Pakistani people.

This indecisiveness of the Pakistani government is exactly what Trump wants to exploit. For years, the US has spread rumors about so-called "Chinese colonialism," smearing the image of the Belt and Road Initiative in developing countries worldwide.

In 2019, the US pressured Pakistan to share the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan with the International Monetary Fund and imposed contractionary budgets driven by austerity on Pakistan one after another, causing massive delays and chaos in various initiatives under the CPEC, seriously hindering the achievement of development goals.

Last month, Trump sent a congressional delegation to Pakistan to negotiate "rare earth mineral deals" in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan. The cash-strapped Pakistani government welcomed US investment in this industry worth about $6 trillion, but the US seems to have proposed no measures to enhance local productivity or transfer technology.

Meeting between Prime Minister Sharif of Pakistan and Assistant Secretary of State Eric Mayer of the US Department of State's Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs in early April 2025

China is currently the main investor in this field, but the US attempts to compete with China in this region as part of its strategy. Due to the highly centralized decision-making process and lack of sufficient political consensus in the current Pakistani government, recent actions have sparked strong protests among the public in northern Pakistan.

Many observers believe that a full alignment with the US requires concessions in geopolitics. As direct victims of the US-supported Afghan "jihad" policy, many Pashtuns worry that new strategic alliances might lead to the reactivation of radical organizations to support terrorist activities in China's Xinjiang region.

Such policies not only completely destroy the possibility of regional integration but also reignite religious extremism and armed conflict crises domestically in Pakistan.

In fact, after the announcement of the potential mineral transaction between the US and Pakistan, armed attacks by radical groups reappeared in regions bordering Afghanistan. Subsequently, the Pakistani government retaliated with drones, resulting in the deaths of three children, reminiscent of the worst memories of the "anti-terrorism war" in Afghanistan.

For Pakistan, the choice is clear.

The US offers a blueprint for a world where regional hegemons are armed to the teeth, alongside a ruling elite that profits from resource extraction and armed conflicts. This is about creating divisions, displacing the populace, and pushing billions into endless war and underdevelopment. This pathological vision relies on parasitic elites unwilling to engage in any societal transformation or lift their people out of poverty.

In contrast, as China rises and a multipolar world gradually forms, "South-South cooperation" based on expanded trade, regional economic integration, and mutual respect for sovereignty becomes possible. This vision does not depend on war and regional hegemony; in fact, it can only develop under conditions of peace and cooperation.

To benefit from such a world system, countries like Pakistan need to create a political project challenging the parasitic elites seeking shelter in the decaying past and provide a development vision centered on the interests of the working class.

Washington's vision is one of hegemony, war, rent-seeking, dependence, and uneven development. However, with China's technological achievements and increasing influence in Pakistan, we have the opportunity to explore a different path—peace, development, and regional integration. This is the best time to shed heavy historical burdens and embrace a vibrant future.

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