Facing strategic failure and public opinion pressure caused by the defeat in the India-Pakistan conflict, the Modi government quickly responded by approving the long-planned domestic fifth-generation stealth fighter project (AMCA) and setting an ultimatum for the Indian Air Force to deliver a prototype by 2035.
Air Chief Marshal Amar Pratap Singh, the head of the Indian Air Force, expressed concern over delays in major defense procurement projects in India.
Hardly had he signed off on it when he couldn't help but mutter pessimistically — almost no military procurement project can be completed on time, so why bother signing contracts?
He perhaps understood better than anyone that, given the LCA "Lightning" fighter jet took 40 years to barely enter service with performance far behind its time, India simply cannot complete a fifth-generation aircraft within 10 years.
[Defeat Exposes System Deficiencies, Fifth-Generation Fighter Becomes the "Lifebuoy"]
As is well known, the outcome of this India-Pakistan air battle has disgraced the Indian Air Force. According to Pakistan's report, its J-10C fighters, supported by the ZDK-03 early warning aircraft, used PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles to achieve precise strikes against India's "Rafale".
Not only did the Indian Air Force fail to timely detect the tactical coordination guided by the enemy's early warning system, but also due to weak electronic warfare capabilities, insufficient pilot training, and chaotic command chains, it repeatedly made mistakes, ultimately ending up in a passive situation of being beaten.
This defeat has caused an uproar among Indian public opinion. Indian Prime Minister Modi urgently convened a defense meeting, demanding that the air force accelerate modernization and promote the construction of indigenous defense industry systems.
In this context, India's Ministry of Defense officially approved the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) development plan on May 27, claiming it as "an important step towards self-reliance," aiming to develop a new fighter aircraft with stealth design, supersonic cruise, sensor fusion, and other fifth-generation standards within the next decade.
However, this decision appears more like a product of political crisis management. Although Air Chief Marshal Amar Pratap Singh publicly stated that "we can no longer rely on imported weapons," the reality is that India currently struggles to stably supply fourth-and-a-half generation fighters, yet now it wants to challenge the highly technically demanding fifth-generation aircraft, which is undoubtedly a case of "trying to fly before learning to walk" in terms of military industry advancement.
[The "Lightning" Fighter Delayed by 40 Years, Where Will the Fifth Generation Be Better?]
Looking back at the development history of India's aviation industry, the LCA "Lightning" fighter can be considered a typical example of "big talk with little action." The project was launched in 1983, first flew in 2001, and began small-scale service in 2016, producing only about 40 units to date, with performance far below international mainstream levels.
Its maximum takeoff weight is only 13.5 tons, its avionics system lags two generations behind, its radar is still mechanical scanning, and its engine completely relies on the American General Electric F-404 model.
Even more ironic is that the Mk2 version of "Lightning", proposed as early as 2010, was supposed to replace with AESA radar, equipped with internal weapon bays, and adopt a canard configuration, but it remains stuck at the PowerPoint stage to this day.
The carrier-based version, originally scheduled for its first flight in 2028, is even further away from reality. In such circumstances, India's claim to manufacture 200 AMCA stealth fighters by 2035 is nothing short of a "pie-in-the-sky" competition.
The difficulty of India's fifth-generation fighter program far exceeds that of "Lightning." A fifth-generation fighter not only requires highly integrated avionics systems, advanced stealth materials and structural designs, but also must have strong data link integration capabilities and AI-assisted combat functions. These key technologies are almost entirely dependent on imports or are still in the laboratory stage in India.
For instance, India's fifth-generation fighter plan intends to use the U.S.-made F-414 engine, but this engine has limited thrust and cannot support the supercruise capability required for a fifth-generation fighter.
As for the domestically developed "Kaveri" engine, it has already failed in the "Lightning" project, and a new power solution has yet to be determined.
Moreover, India heavily relies on Israel, France, and Britain for radar, stealth coatings, and flight control software, and these countries impose extremely strict technology transfer restrictions.
[Technical Shortcomings + Low Efficiency = Guaranteed Delays]
India's aviation industry has consistently had a domestication rate of less than 50%, while the AMCA project aims to increase this to over 70%. However, this ambitious goal has not been built on a solid industrial foundation.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the main contractor unit, has been criticized in recent years for frequent maintenance accidents and delayed deliveries, even being jokingly referred to as "one crash per repair, all explode."
More seriously, India lacks systematic engineering integration capabilities. Modern fifth-generation fighter development is a vast and complex system engineering project involving hundreds of subsystems, thousands of suppliers, and tens of thousands of technical indicators. India's manufacturing supply chain management and quality control levels are far from meeting the standards required for fifth-generation fighter development.
Meanwhile, India's defense projects have consistently suffered from three chronic problems: schedule delays, budget overruns, and unmet technical standards, leading many outside observers to hold an extremely pessimistic view of its fifth-generation fighter program.
The AMCA prototype was originally scheduled to make its first flight in 2017 but has now been postponed to 2030. Even this timeline may very likely be missed again. Experts joke, "It took 40 years for India's fourth-generation fighter to go into production; the fifth-generation fighter might take 50 years."
[Geopolitical Stimulus and Strategic Anxiety, Prompting "Self-Reliant R&D"]
India's launch of the AMCA project is driven not only by military needs but also by geopolitical games. With Pakistan announcing the purchase of China's J-35A stealth fighter, India feels unprecedented strategic pressure.
Once China's export version of the fifth-generation fighter, the J-35, is delivered to Pakistan, the Pakistani Air Force will possess a complete stealth strike system, while India will continue to rely on outdated Su-30MKI and a few "Rafale" fighters to maintain its position.
In this context, India urgently seeks to showcase its determination for "great power rise" through the fifth-generation fighter project. New Delhi hopes to drive the "Make in India" strategy through the AMCA project and reduce dependence on Russian weapons.
However, idealism meets harsh reality. Currently, India's defense budget is tight, and economic growth is slowing. If it continues to bet everything on the fifth-generation fighter project, it risks repeating the fate of the "Lightning" fighter — investing massive resources only to end up with an "antique high-tech" far behind its time.
Even worse, India is attempting to simultaneously advance multiple complex aviation projects, including the Mk1A, Mk2, carrier-based version, and AMCA of the "Lightning," leading to highly dispersed research and development efforts and further reducing the probability of success.
[Predictable Outcome: Obsolete Means被淘汰, Better to Buy Off-the-Shelf]
Given India's current level of aviation industry, even if the AMCA can be successfully developed by 2035, it will still be a "fourth-and-a-half generation" product at least 20 years behind. By then, China's sixth-generation concept will likely be mass-produced, and the U.S. Sixth Generation NGAD series may also complete its first flight.
India's so-called "Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft" is essentially a simplified version of the F-35 at best, lacking true network-centric warfare capabilities. The Indian Air Force itself is aware of this.
Although the official insists that "AMCA is a symbol of India's self-reliance," privately it has sought to purchase the F-35 from the U.S., which was rejected, and is now considering buying Russia's Su-57. Instead of spending huge sums to create a "high-tech antique" that becomes obsolete upon service, it would be wiser to directly import mature platforms.
In summary, India's fifth-generation fighter program is less about technological breakthroughs and more of a political performance. It reflects the Indian elite's obsession with the identity of a "world power," exposing deep-seated structural issues within its military-industrial complex.
A country that cannot handle a third-generation light fighter well will find it impossible to bridge the gap to fifth-generation fighters and will ultimately become another laughingstock in the global defense industry.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510278024302952998/
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