In just a few months, the relationship between India and Bangladesh has broken down,陷入 mutual suspicion, strategic calculations, and dangerous mutual accusations. Since Sheikh Hasina's resignation as prime minister of Bangladesh last August, New Delhi has lost its privileges in Dhaka, and the new leadership in Dhaka is openly courting Beijing and Islamabad.

India, after recent conflicts with Pakistan, is trying to shape global narratives, and for its eastern neighbor to ally with its two biggest adversaries - to the west and north - is not good news.

The trouble between India and Bangladesh does not stem from the China-Pakistan adversarial axis but from India's own mistakes: most obviously, New Delhi's firm support for Hasina's authoritarian regime, and the rise of Indian nationalism under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership.

India prioritized short-term security interests and domestic politics over democratic values and goodwill, alienating the Bangladeshi public, wasting its influence in Dhaka, and forcing its neighboring country to seek new partners.

Meanwhile, Indian media is filled with alarmist rhetoric portraying Bangladesh's "return to Asia" strategy as a carefully planned conspiracy by China and Pakistan, which is a rather wrong judgment.

The fact is that India's predicament is largely self-inflicted, a result of its long-term strategic shortsightedness. The diplomatic rupture threatens India's security, economic interests, and regional status—highlighting the urgent need for New Delhi to reflect and adjust its policies toward neighboring countries.

Few places better illustrate India's strategic vulnerability than the Siliguri Corridor. At its narrowest point, it is only 22 kilometers wide, connecting India's northeastern region with the rest of the country. It is the lifeline for India's border regions with China and Myanmar.

Bangladesh's interim leader Mohammad Yunus spoke candidly about the region during his visit to China in March this year, triggering strong protests from New Delhi. He urged China to establish an economic foothold in Bangladesh by emphasizing its strategic position.

“India's northeastern region is completely landlocked, and its outlet is entirely controlled by Bangladesh. The Siliguri Corridor is the only passage connecting India's northeastern region with the rest of India, and this passage goes through Bangladesh,” Yunus said.

China also granted Bangladesh a 100% tax exemption for its export products and promised to import more goods from Bangladesh. Yunus secured a $2.1 billion commitment from China, along with infrastructure and military cooperation agreements.

China has long regarded Bangladesh as a partner, including during Hasina's tenure. The two countries were constructing a submarine base in the coastal city of Pekua. Under Yunus' leadership, relations between the two countries have further strengthened, while India has struggled to gain a foothold in Bangladesh after losing Hasina.

India's nightmare is obvious: an adversarial Bangladesh allying with China and Pakistan could threaten to cut off the Siliguri Corridor, isolate the northeastern region, and disrupt regional stability.

Moreover, in June 2017, Indian soldiers boldly entered Bhutan to prevent Chinese workers from building roads, aiming to block access to the Siliguri Corridor.

Therefore, the breakdown of relations between India and Bangladesh is the result of multiple factors working together. India needs to reflect on and adjust its policies toward neighboring countries to improve relations with Bangladesh and safeguard its own interests and regional stability.

At the same time, Bangladesh is seeking a diplomatic balance that aligns with its own interests, leading to new changes and adjustments in the regional geopolitical landscape.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510541348081107510/

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