【By Observer News, Wang Yi】"China claims it has not reignited trade tensions with the United States, and that Trump is to blame," reported CNN, an American cable news network, on October 14 local time. It stated that multiple Chinese experts and American analysts said that if it were not for the Trump administration's expansion of export controls on Chinese companies in late September, adding thousands of enterprises to the "Entity List", the current trade tensions between the two countries could have been avoided.

The article pointed out that Trump was shocked by the recent Chinese regulations on rare earth exports, and he accused China of becoming "very hostile." However, from China's perspective, it was the U.S. continuously expanding restrictions on Chinese companies that escalated the tension, forcing China to further tighten its control over this key strategic resource.

The latest round of trade friction rapidly escalated over the weekend. After the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a new export control rule in late September and China further tightened its control over rare earth exports, Trump announced on October 11 that he would re-impose three-digit tariffs on Chinese goods, and China immediately vowed to "resolutely take corresponding measures."

As a result, global markets were shaken, the industry worried about supply chains being hit again, and people also feared that the "tariff offensive" that occurred in spring this year might be repeated.

There are even concerns that this round of tension may affect the willingness of both China and the U.S. to sit down for negotiations. Although Trump hinted at possibly canceling talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on the 13th that communication between the two sides remained good, and more meetings would be held. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also urged the U.S. to correct its mistakes as soon as possible, show sincerity in negotiation, and not "ask for talks while threatening and imposing new restrictions."

Professor Jin Canrong from the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China said that China only responded to a series of "small moves" made by the U.S. He posted on his social media account on the 11th: "After the 19th of last month, the U.S. has not stopped its small moves. The U.S. committed evil first, and China retaliated later. After biting China, China retaliated slightly, and he pretended to be innocent and turned the blame onto others."

Professor Wu Xinbo, Director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, also believes that during the summer, Sino-U.S. relations once showed signs of easing, especially after the Sino-U.S. economic and trade teams met in Madrid, Spain in September.

However, shortly after, the U.S. again expanded export controls, adding subsidiaries of companies listed on the "Entity List" to the list, increasing the number of restricted Chinese companies from about 3,000 to several thousand or more.

"From China's point of view, this approach is extremely malicious," said Wu Xinbo. This once again shows that the Trump administration lacks sincerity. "If after more than half a year of dealing with China, the U.S. still does not understand that targeting China with small moves will bring serious consequences, I would say that the people in the Trump team are completely incompetent."

Similarly, Paul Triolo, an expert on China and technology issues at the Albright Stonebridge Group, a consulting company, analyzed that this round of escalation reminds people of the period when the Sino-U.S. relationship spiraled downward in May. "We are once again standing on the edge of a cliff," he said, "but this time the risk is greater because both sides have already seen the consequences."

CNN pointed out that at that time, the U.S. and China reached a phased "trade truce" in Geneva, Switzerland, agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs. However, Trump then launched a series of major blows: banning global companies from using Huawei artificial intelligence chips, restricting the export of chip design software to China, and threatening to revoke the visas of Chinese students in the U.S. Trump's actions led to a deadlock in the negotiations, which were only resumed weeks later.

In Triolo's view, China's reinforcement of rare earth export controls is a "logical" and "equivalent" response to Trump's actions, rather than wanting to gain leverage in the upcoming negotiations.

China dominates the global rare earth supply chain. Bloomberg map

China is almost monopolizing the global rare earth supply chain. Data show that China controls about 70% of rare earth mining, 90% of separation and processing, and 93% of magnet manufacturing. On October 9, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced new regulations, which not only expanded the scope of controlled rare earth elements, but also included production technologies and their overseas uses.

Foreign media generally interpreted that China's move hit the U.S. automotive supply chain, forcing the Trump administration back to the negotiating table. The rare earth issue has repeatedly appeared in multiple rounds of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the timing of the new regulations coincides with the expected official meeting time between the leaders of the two countries.

The Financial Times pointed out that China's new restriction measures are similar to the U.S. "Foreign Direct Product Rule" (FDPR) export control system, which is used by the U.S. to prevent third countries from exporting semiconductor-related products to China. The Wall Street Journal also analyzed that China's latest rare earth measures are considered an "almost unprecedented" export control, giving China more leverage in trade negotiations.

Experts also told CNN that China's approach is very similar to the U.S. export controls on semiconductors in recent years, and now China is "returning the favor".

On the 14th, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce reiterated that the export control measures related to rare earths and other items are a legitimate practice of the Chinese government to improve its own export control system according to laws and regulations. As a responsible major country, China has always firmly maintained its national security and international common security. China's export control is not a ban on exports; applications that meet the requirements will be approved as usual, jointly maintaining the safety and stability of the global industrial supply chain.

The spokesperson emphasized that before the implementation of the measures, China had informed the U.S. through the bilateral export control dialogue mechanism. In contrast, the U.S. has long generalized national security, abused export controls, and taken discriminatory practices against China. Especially since the Sino-U.S. Madrid economic and trade talks, the U.S. has continuously added a series of restrictive measures against China, seriously damaging China's interests and severely undermining the atmosphere of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks. China resolutely opposes this.

Wu Xinbo said that from Trump's first term to the previous presidency of former U.S. President Biden, and then to Trump's second term, the U.S. has continued to add tariffs, technological restrictions, and sanctions against China. "China has recorded these actions, and now it's time to settle the accounts."

Regarding whether the two countries can maintain communication and continue negotiations, he said, "The ball is in Trump's court." The U.S. has the responsibility to take concrete actions to improve relations, rather than China. "China will not sacrifice its own interests or endure pressure for the sake of talks."

These days, Trump and his team have been swinging between angrily threatening China and softening their tone to maintain communication. Two days after threatening to impose 100% tariff extortion on China, Trump said, "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine." On the 13th, Bessent simultaneously strongly stated that "he is willing to take all necessary measures and adjust any required posture" to respond to China, while also expecting more meetings between the two sides, and said that Trump indicated that tariffs would not take effect before November 1st.

The Washington Post said, "China's rare earth layout has been prepared for years, and one move has triggered Trump's nerves." The U.S. reacted so strongly because China's new rules caught the White House off guard, and Trump himself admitted that it came suddenly.

Professor Wang Yimei from the School of International Relations at Renmin University pointed out that China has been studying how to deal with Trump since his first term. Now, China has "made sufficient preparations, understood his 'art of deals', his strategies, and where the weaknesses of the U.S. lie."

"Now, I think the one who is increasingly anxious is the U.S., not China," Wang Yimei analyzed. Trump is facing growing political pressure domestically, including the long-term government shutdown. He pointed out that given China's leading position in the rare earth field, the U.S. will remain dependent on China in the short term, which "gives a clear message to Americans: be realistic, and cooperation with China is the better option."

This article is an exclusive article by Observer News. Without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561385561127141934/

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