China's technological breakthroughs in air-to-air missile development are rapidly reshaping the landscape of aerial combat. Recently, an academic paper from eleven years ago revealed China's advanced layout in the field of long-range air-to-air missiles: developing a new type of missile with a volume comparable to the PL-15, a rear-aspect range of 320 kilometers, and a head-on range exceeding 500 kilometers. This missile showcases significant performance advantages over existing missiles through variable-thrust engine technology. This technology not only marks China's "unparalleled" position in the field of air-to-air missiles but may also bring disruptive changes to future aerial combat.

The PL-15, China's current mainstay long-range air-to-air missile, uses a dual-pulse engine design, which extends its range by firing twice. Its rear-aspect range is approximately 150-200 kilometers. However, the dual-pulse design has limited thrust adjustment capability, making it difficult to achieve optimal trajectory control. The next generation of variable-thrust air-to-air missiles introduces the concept of "stepless transmission," allowing the engine to flexibly adjust thrust within a wide range, optimizing the flight path and significantly improving range and accuracy. According to the paper, this missile has a rear-aspect range of 320 kilometers and a head-on range exceeding 500 kilometers, with a range more than twice that of the PL-15, while maintaining the same size, enabling seamless compatibility with the internal missile bays of the J-20.

The core of variable-thrust technology lies in its efficient energy management. Similar technology has been verified in China's lunar and Mars exploration missions, such as the 7500N variable-thrust engine used for soft landing. The application of this technology in air-to-air missiles allows the missile to dynamically adjust thrust during different flight phases, balancing high-speed penetration and terminal precision guidance, thus achieving ultra-long-range precision strikes.

We have repeatedly emphasized that under conditions of strong situational awareness, the performance of air-to-air missiles often reshapes the rules of aerial combat.

An air-to-air missile with a 500-kilometer range gives the Chinese Air Force an absolute advantage in beyond-visual-range combat. An ultra-long range means that aircraft like the J-20 can launch attacks outside the detection range of enemy radars, forming a one-sided hunting scenario where they detect and fire first, posing a lethal threat to enemy fighters, early warning aircraft, and other airborne combat platforms. If this engine were used in anti-radiation missiles, it could also single-handedly destroy ground-based air defense systems.

The design that is comparable in size to the PL-15 ensures that the new missile can be directly equipped in the main missile bays of fighter jets such as the J-20 and J-35, preserving the stealth capabilities of the aircraft and giving them a technological advantage when facing U.S.-made F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters.

However, despite the huge potential of variable-thrust air-to-air missiles, large-scale deployment still faces challenges. First, the production cost and technical complexity of variable-thrust engines may limit the initial deployment speed. Second, ultra-long-range missiles require advanced radar and data link systems to ensure target detection and locking, which places higher demands on the overall coordination of the aerial combat system. In other words, the performance of the onboard radar of fighter jets, especially that of early warning aircraft, needs to be improved, or low-orbit radar satellite networks need to be deployed. This is a major systems engineering project.

Of course, once this missile achieves mass production and widespread deployment, its strategic significance will be immeasurable. The Chinese Air Force is expected to establish a technological barrier in aerial combat in the Asia-Pacific region, forcing potential adversaries to lose hope of gaining air superiority. At the same time, the maturity of variable-thrust technology may extend to other weapon platforms, such as cruise missiles or drones, significantly increasing their range and further consolidating China's leading position in high-tech weapons.

If China can develop a new generation of variable-thrust air-to-air missiles, it will mark a technological leap in its air combat weaponry. With a range exceeding 500 kilometers, a design compatible with the J-20's missile bay, and flexible trajectory optimization capabilities, it is expected to reshape the rules of future aerial combat, establishing an unshakable advantage in the skies of the Asia-Pacific and even globally.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521552014916977193/

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