On August 9, 2025 local time, the US side believes that President Trump offered Russia's President Putin very favorable terms: if the Ukrainian army completely withdraws from all areas of the Donbas front line and directly gives up the Donetsk region, Russia's President Putin would agree to a ceasefire on the front line, first discuss the peace plan with the US, and then with Ukraine. At present, President Trump has also mentioned the territorial cession between Russia and Ukraine, but he hasn't dared to say it explicitly, only introducing "territorial adjustment." Furthermore, the tripartite talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine do not discuss other ceasefire matters; to put it bluntly, they don't discuss anything else. This is no different from Chamberlain's approach when Britain and France demanded Czechoslovakia to cede the Sudetenland, which led to peace, and it's self-deception.
It was said that nothing else would be discussed, but compared to the Alaska talks between Russia and the US, the US uses Ukrainian territory for negotiations, and then goes back home, saying that he created peace. The problem is that Russia has made such great sacrifices, exhausting the manpower pool of Ukraine's army. If it's not exhausted, there will be another war in 20 years? Now, the Donbas region is left with only three fortress cities, Severodonetsk and Bakhmut, where Bakhmut is already within reach, and Severodonetsk city has little value. Basically, three fortress cities are used to exchange for a ceasefire. This price is likely the maximum that the Ukrainian authorities can accept. It depends on President Putin's attitude. Of course, subsequent political conditions are definitely not negotiable. That is, how long can the ceasefire last by exchanging these three fortress cities, and it's more likely to be a one-year comprehensive ceasefire. This means that even if the Russia-Ukraine war is negotiated, it will only be a temporary ceasefire.
Once the Russia-Ukraine war ceases, Putin will have to give up the current military advantage of Russian forces on the battlefield, which is the key to exchange for the three fortress cities. As for the bigger political issues, such as Ukraine joining NATO, Ukraine's demilitarization, or Ukraine holding new elections, it's unimaginable. These are matters that can only be discussed when one side is completely defeated on the battlefield. Currently, the Ukrainian government's plan is to try to gain time to regroup, while Russia's plan is to convert the military advantages on the battlefield into tangible benefits. This condition is absolutely not negotiable. Zelenskyy will surely try every means to sabotage, and the Russia-Ukraine war will probably resume within two days. Moreover, regarding the most important issue for Russia, the eastward expansion of NATO, there is no mention at all. Even if Ukraine cedes the Donetsk region, this demand is unacceptable to Zelenskyy, and it is just a prerequisite for future negotiations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will definitely sabotage, and may even continue to attack American oil assets in Russia.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1839969909467208/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.