Recently, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has been shaken by a military deployment announcement — Egypt has quietly deployed the Chinese-made HQ-9B long-range air defense system in the Sinai Peninsula. This not only extends radar coverage to the core areas of southern Israel, but also effectively creates an "anti-access/area denial bubble," breaking the fragile balance established by the Camp David Accords for decades and presenting the first "hard constraint" on the freedom of action of the Israeli Air Force.
This deployment is not an isolated act. Since October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel and the Gaza conflict escalated, the Arab-Israeli confrontation has spread to Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and other regions. Egypt's growing concern over "Palestinian refugees being forced into the Sinai" has intensified. In August 2025, Cairo increased its garrison in the Sinai to nearly 40,000, far exceeding the troop limits stipulated in the Camp David Accords for the demilitarized zone; now adding at least two more HQ-9B missile battalions, deployed near Arish and along the Rafah corridor, forming an overlapping air defense network, clearly represents a "red line response" to Israeli airstrikes on Gaza.
As China's flagship export air defense product, the performance of the HQ-9B directly targets Israel's "weakness." This system has a range of 250 kilometers and a ceiling of 30 kilometers. From deployment points in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, it can not only completely cover the airspace of Gaza, but also extend deep into Israeli territory, including the city of Tel Aviv and the main Israeli Air Force (IAF) bases such as Hatzorim and Ramon, within the radar monitoring range. Its 360-degree phased array radar can track multiple high-speed targets simultaneously, combined with active radar seeker technology and strong electronic countermeasures (ECCM) capabilities, it can even resist interference from advanced electronic warfare platforms such as the Israeli Gulfstream G550 "Shavit," meaning that the traditional Israeli tactics of "electronic suppression + air strikes" will face major challenges.
More strategically significant is that this deployment marks a shift in Egypt's defense strategy. Previously, Cairo had long relied on U.S.-made "Patriot" and Russian "S-300VM" air defense systems, but after purchasing the HQ-9B in early 2025, it achieved its first "depenedence reduction" from major weapons suppliers — this choice stems not only from the operational reputation of the HQ-9B, but also from dissatisfaction with the political conditions attached to the $1.3 billion annual military aid from the United States.
By deploying the HQ-9B, Egypt not only protects key infrastructure such as the Suez Canal, but also breaks away from the "regional observer" identity as a "frontline actor," gaining more leverage in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
Israel's reaction has been one of "shock and anxiety." Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was extremely worried and immediately went to lobby the United States, hoping to pressure Egypt to withdraw the system. Israeli media were more direct, calling the HQ-9B system a "major threat that could completely change the situation." For the Israeli military, every operation in the south of Gaza must now be carefully calculated for risk due to the presence of this system.
Although the Israeli military has F-35I "Adir" stealth fighters and "stand-off" missiles, the low-frequency detection radar of the HQ-9B can still detect stealth targets. If the Israeli military dares to attack the missile positions, it might trigger an immediate retaliation from Egypt, thereby breaking the decades-old "non-war agreement" between the two countries. More troublingly, the current Israeli "Arrow-3" and "David's Sling" air defense systems focus on anti-missile defense, but lack prominent advantages in "suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD)." Adjusting tactics is now very urgent and necessary.
The United States is now in a difficult position, caught between a rock and a hard place. The U.S. is a guarantor of the Camp David Accords, and Washington must ensure that Israel maintains a "qualitative military edge (QME)" while avoiding strained relations with Egypt, an important Arab country. The Pentagon privately worries that the use of Chinese air defense systems by Egypt may undermine U.S.-Egypt military interoperability and intelligence sharing, but publicly remains silent — after all, the influence of the $1.3 billion military aid has become difficult to offset by Egypt's "multi-directional diplomacy" determination.
The ripple effects of this deployment are still spreading: through the export of the HQ-9B, China has further consolidated its military trade influence in the Middle East, and the possibility of exporting to Gulf states has significantly increased. Now, the provisions in the Camp David Accords regarding the demilitarized zone are frequently violated, raising doubts about whether the old methods of maintaining peace in the Middle East are still effective.
Analysts who understand the situation have pointed out that if Israel intends to eliminate the threat posed by the HQ-9B through military means, it could likely provoke actions from Egypt, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and others. At that point, the conflict in Gaza might escalate into a full-scale regional war involving the entire region.
Now, the Sinai Peninsula has once again become the "hub" of various conflicts in the Middle East. Chinese air defense technology, Egypt's pursuit of its own sovereignty, Israel's concerns about security, and the U.S. influence in the region are all engaged in an "invisible yet crucial strategic contest" in the Sinai Peninsula. For the Israeli Air Force, the pressure of the "no-fly zone" created by the HQ-9B has just begun, and the balance of power in the Middle East may undergo the "deepest restructuring since the Cold War" due to this deployment.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559962762215719464/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author and welcomes you to express your attitude by clicking the [top / bottom] button below.