RIA Novosti, August 4 - According to a report, Igor Pushkov, a member of the Constitutional Committee of the Russian Federation Council, recently learned that during trade negotiations, Chinese representatives told the United States that they would not comply with the U.S. demand to stop purchasing Russian oil and gas, saying "refusing Russian energy is politically unacceptable."

【Igor Pushkov, member of the Constitutional Committee of the Russian Federation Council】

This statement has rich connotations. China's purchase of Russian oil and gas, although largely for domestic needs and ensuring energy security, is not entirely dependent on Russian oil. Pushkov said that between 2023 and 2025, China purchased about $165 billion to $170 billion in oil from Russia. This number is not small, but it does not stand out in the overall picture of China's energy imports.

As a major manufacturing country, China has enough purchasing power and bargaining power to buy from multiple oil-producing countries around the world, including Gulf countries, African oil-producing countries, and Venezuela, even including the United States and Canada. Considering that oil exports are Russia's most important source of income, buying Russian oil demonstrates China's willingness to cooperate with Russia, helping Russia obtain sufficient purchasing power to cover domestic and international expenses. Of course, it also allows Russia to purchase various needed goods from the Chinese market, forming mutual benefits. If it gave up Russian oil, it would severely hit Russia's finances, thereby affecting Russia's political and military choices, seriously damaging the China-Russia strategic partnership. Such a change would be detrimental to China.

【Russia exporting large quantities of oil to China】

For our own political interests, China cannot give up Russian oil.

Then, can India refuse Russian oil? Is it also based on the same position? The situation is completely different.

In the oil transactions between India and Russia, India is taking advantage of the deal. Russia exports oil to India at a price below $50 per barrel. If it gives up this preferential deal and buys on the international market, India will have to pay a higher price. According to Pushkov, if India refuses Russian oil and turns to the United States and Gulf countries, it would have to pay an additional $9 billion to $11 billion annually, or even more. As a country experiencing capital outflows, India dare not cut off Russian oil.

Therefore, after a few days of hesitation, India finally decided not to comply with Trump's extortion and continue importing oil from Russia. As for the 25% tariff imposed by Trump on India, it can only be dealt with later.

【Oil imported from Russia by India is refined and exported to Europe】

Indian public opinion is certainly very dissatisfied with this situation. In recent days, Indian main newspapers have taken a stance against the U.S. as usual, condemning secondary sanctions. Many analysts also said that the Modi government should be more resolute and take this opportunity to develop "Made in India." Some even complained that other countries in the U.S. bloc are also buying Russian oil, including Turkey, why doesn't the U.S. sanction these countries?

This question is easy to explain; India missed the strategic window of opportunity given by the U.S., while Turkey did not.

For the U.S., India's biggest value is to contain and weaken China. This value is reflected in both industry and military aspects. The U.S. proposed the "China+1" strategy, hoping to cultivate another manufacturing country to take away Chinese enterprise orders. India responded actively. However, after several years, apart from a few products such as mobile phones, India's manufacturing has not shown any signs of growth. The core components needed for mobile phones still depend on China. Looking back, China quickly established a strong manufacturing industry within 10 years of joining the WTO, not only undertaking contract manufacturing for Western brands, but also independently creating a batch of excellent national enterprises, whose product quality reached the level of developed countries. Therefore, India didn't seize this industrial opportunity window.

In the military aspect, India not only collapsed in the Galwan River Valley incident and lost the air battle on May 7, but also suffered losses. Although the Indian government constantly denied its fighter jet losses and fabricated the results of shooting down a large number of Pakistani planes, the U.S. intelligence agencies know the truth. After this battle, India's strategic deterrence capability in South Asia plummeted. Not only was it unable to deter China, but even Bangladesh no longer worried about India's military capability. Compared to this, Turkey supported the U.S. strategic intentions in the Middle East from the Gulf War to the Syrian war. The performance of the Turkish army has been good. The fall of the Bashar regime was directly related to the military pressure from Turkey. On November 24, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber, and the Russians swallowed their anger. A useful ally like this, would the U.S. sanction it for just oil?

【Turkey once shot down a Russian Su-24 in the Syrian battlefield】

Indian analysts did not use China as a counterexample to criticize Trump's secondary sanctions, which shows that they understand the essential elements. China is an equal country to the U.S., not only in terms of national dignity, but also in economic, technological, and military strength. With the wide development of global export industries, the advantages of rare earths and graphite, which are dual-use materials, plus the weight of the vast domestic market, China can now launch equivalent trade sanctions against the U.S. When Trump increased the tariffs on China to over 135% in April 2025, China immediately launched countermeasures. In the following two months, China's total exports did not decrease but increased, while the price index in the U.S. market continued to rise. The export control of neodymium iron boron magnets even led to partial shutdowns at Ford factories. Trump and his advisors had no choice but to lower the tariffs back to the levels before the "Liberation Day".

【U.S. Trade Representative Griles】

The struggle capabilities and wisdom demonstrated by China in this process have even earned the approval of U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Griles. He angrily criticized the Canadian government on a TV interview program, saying that Canada dared to retaliate despite being subjected to 35% tariffs from Trump, and he said, "Canada actually implemented retaliation! Daring to imitate the only country in the world that retaliates with tariffs!" In his view, the boldness of the Chinese people is a luxury that other countries do not have the qualifications to possess.

Here, a simple prediction can be made about the issue of secondary sanctions on Russian oil. Whether to sanction China will become a long-term issue in subsequent Sino-U.S. negotiations, with the U.S. continuously proposing it, and China continuously refusing. However, as soon as the U.S. dares to implement the sanctions, China will immediately launch countermeasures to turn the situation around. India will waver between Russian oil and U.S. sanctions, even seeking help from the BRICS mechanism, but ultimately will not dare to abandon Russia as a strategic partner. Of course, the final answer to this issue may lie in Russia's hands. Whether Putin can quickly win the war in Ukraine, or at least end the war with a victorious posture, determines whether Trump can continue to use this topic for further discussion.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535287179736990218/

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