【By Observer Net, Ruan Jiaqi】

With a series of random punches, the Trump administration has confused its key Asian ally India, causing some tension between the two.

For days, Trump has publicly threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India on top of the 25% tariff, in response to India's "large" purchases of Russian energy. This has greatly angered New Delhi, which has not held back from refuting the U.S. criticism as "unjustified and unreasonable".

On August 6, Hong Kong media South China Morning Post reported, citing sources, that with the escalation of U.S.-India trade tensions, the high-profile visit by Trump to India this autumn may become uncertain.

India is planning to host the Quad leaders' summit this year in September or October, and Trump had planned to use the summit as an opportunity to visit India. According to a source familiar with the summit preparations, the White House has been pressuring India to produce tangible "achievements" that Trump can announce during his visit, i.e., a U.S.-India trade agreement.

"Announcing the successful conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement would undoubtedly make Trump's visit to India more noticeable than just attending the Quad summit," said Wendy Cutter, Deputy Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) in Washington.

It was reported that both sides had originally planned to finalize a comprehensive trade agreement during Trump's visit to India to build momentum for the visit and assign it strategic and political significance. However, the current deadlock makes it difficult to resolve, and sources said that if the trade negotiations fail to break through, the possibility of Trump's visit is getting smaller.

Hong Kong media pointed out that this rift not only tests the U.S.-India bilateral relationship but also casts doubt on the prospects of a key alliance aimed at countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Some experts and analysts believe that if the U.S.-India trade negotiations collapse, and Trump cancels his visit to India, it could allow China to gain strategic benefits in the Indo-Pacific region.

On July 1 local time, the foreign ministers of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India met in Washington for the Quad meeting. U.S. Department of State video screenshot

Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Washington-based bipartisan think tank Center for New American Security (CNAS), criticized Trump for his "narrow focus on tariffs and trade balance", saying he "ignored the broader geopolitical landscape and the greater challenges to U.S. national security."

Curtis served as the president's deputy assistant and senior director for South and Central Asia during Trump's first term. She claimed that in order to counter China's growing military power and influence, the U.S. urgently needs to strengthen relations with countries like India on the security front, rather than start disputes over better market access.

She described the Quad as an "effective" mechanism that promotes activities and policies in the Indo-Pacific region that are in the U.S. interest, such as acting as a "frontline against China."

"The first-term Trump administration successfully elevated U.S.-India relations, establishing strategic trust and confidence. A lack of strategic vision in the second term may weaken these achievements," Curtis speculated, adding, "This is clearly a victory for China."

Curtis hopes that the U.S. and India can reach a trade agreement before September, but she added that the prospect of reaching an agreement is somewhat bleak. She further said that Trump's repeated accusations against India are "pushing Modi into a corner, making it increasingly difficult for him to show a conciliatory stance."

Christopher Clary, a professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York, also pointed out that the value of the Quad lies in allowing the "most economically and militarily powerful countries in Asia to meet regularly," but the mechanism is now less important to Washington than under the Biden administration or Trump's first term.

He believes that if the Quad members cannot coordinate their strategies, "China will have more space to enhance its global and regional influence."

Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), warned that "unless Modi and Trump reach an agreement, the current situation will be a period of extreme instability in U.S.-India relations, and it will be very difficult to recover."

"China can indeed benefit from the tense U.S.-India relationship," she added.

While the U.S.-India trade negotiations are stuck, several Indian media outlets have also noted that the relationship between New Delhi and Washington is currently undergoing significant adjustments, with notable differences on issues such as trade, diplomacy, energy transactions, and defense purchases.

In this context, despite existing contradictions and disputes, India has taken "temporary" actions to improve relations with China, in order to enhance its leverage in the competition with the U.S., thereby sending a signal to Washington that India is not in a dilemma in its geopolitics and still has ample choices.

In recent times, there has been frequent official interaction between China and India. In mid-July, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar visited China and attended the meeting of foreign ministers of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states; in late June, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh led a high-level delegation to China and attended the meeting of defense ministers of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states. These two visits marked the first visit to China by the Indian Foreign Minister and Defense Minister in five years.

Additionally, the Indian government think tank NITI Aayog proposed in July to relax additional review rules for Chinese investment; in June, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that a consensus had been reached with China to accelerate the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

Indian media believe that although differences remain, frequent high-level interactions indicate that both countries are seeking to stabilize their relationship.

Saira Bano of the Australian think tank Lowy Institute recently wrote in a new commentary, "Recent developments indicate that India is adopting a more pragmatic and flexible approach towards China, which seems to be a direct response to Trump."

"Ironically, it is Trump's 'America First' stance that has accelerated India's adjustment. For India, the lesson has become evident."

This article is an exclusive article from Observer Net. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

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