On March 22, 2025, Trump announced that Boeing would develop the next-generation fighter jet F47 for the United States. This marked a significant reversal in the U.S. Air Force's research and development strategy after the Biden administration attempted to cancel the sixth-generation fighter NGAD. Trump allocated a budget of $20 billion for this project, although everyone knows this amount is certainly insufficient, it at least allows Boeing to start the project.
【F47 Concept Art】
Just as people were mocking the U.S. Air Force for accepting the F47's canard configuration, an unexpected blow from the East came. On April 4, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 18 of 2025, implementing export controls on certain medium and heavy rare earth-related items. The main targets of the control are foreign defense companies and weapon production models. As a aerospace company, Boeing is also a major user of Chinese rare earths. Without rare earths, the F47 could not be developed according to plan.
As a leading U.S. defense company, Boeing has always been under the attention of China. The main reason is that Boeing supplies a large number of aircraft to China's civil aviation industry, supporting half of the air passenger transport. Although Boeing is also developing and producing military aircraft such as the F15, FA18, and AH64, the JDAM bombs manufactured by Boeing once destroyed the Chinese embassy in the former Yugoslavia in 1999. However, considering Boeing's sincere attitude toward the Chinese market, when China sanctioned other defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, Boeing was spared. Even in April 2025, during the peak of the Sino-U.S. tariff war, China only suspended receiving Boeing aircraft. After reaching a preliminary agreement to temporarily suspend tariffs, the delivery of new aircraft resumed.
Boeing's position regarding rare earths is quite delicate. The various types of commercial aircraft, from the 738 to the 787, also require a large amount of rare earth products to be manufactured. Not only do various motors distributed throughout the fuselage need neodymium-iron-boron magnets, but the radar at the front of the aircraft needs rare earth power devices, and the cockpit display system requires rare earth phosphors, among others. According to China's current rare earth control policies, the supply of rare earths for commercial aircraft can be allowed. However, military aircraft will not receive such treatment, especially the F47 currently under development.
【The avionics system of Boeing 787 uses a large amount of rare earth phosphors】
The U.S. Department of Defense is very clear that, unless there is a drastic upheaval in the world order, it will no longer be able to purchase military-grade rare earth products from China. To solve this problem, the Pentagon tore off the veil of "free market economy" on July 10 and directly invested in MP Mining Company, attempting to build a second rare earth magnet factory within a few years, with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons. In MP Mining's user queue list, the F47 is definitely among the top priorities. Moreover, Boeing has sufficient solid reasons to jump the queue, as the F35 has already been defeated by the J-20, so it's better to allocate precious resources to more powerful sixth-generation aircraft R&D.
To the surprise of the Department of Defense, MP's rare earths turned out to be a mirage, and Boeing's St. Louis factory became chaotic first. On the early morning of August 4, 2025, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in the United States announced a large-scale strike due to labor disputes. The union originally wanted to get a 40% pay raise over four years, and the management formally agreed and even presented a detailed plan. But after careful calculation, the union found that many of these were empty gestures, and the actual cash raise was only 20%. The two sides parted ways, leading to a strike involving thousands of people. The strike did not only affect the St. Louis factory, but also St. Charles and Mascoutah, Illinois. However, the St. Louis factory is responsible for the main initial R&D work of the F47. Boeing had originally planned to establish three facilities here and hire 500 additional workers. With the strike, this plan is certainly going to be delayed for a considerable period. At present, the management has not yet come up with a new response plan. However, referring to the large strikes at Boeing in 2023 and 2024, it can be considered that this issue is unlikely to be resolved easily.
【MP Mining is full of confidence after receiving investment from the Department of Defense】
The Boeing workers' strike was not because they saw the money from the F47, since the project had just begun, and the number of workers involved was still small. Mainly because under the administrations of Trump and Biden, the lives of ordinary American workers have become increasingly difficult. Especially in April 2025, due to Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" large-scale tariff action, the U.S. CPI reached 8.3%. Although in subsequent negotiations, the U.S. tariffs on other countries mostly stabilized at 15%, it still caused a major impact on domestic prices. Military workers are also human beings, and they have to face rising prices with limited wages, including food, rent, clothing, shoes, cars, etc. To prevent their living standards from declining, as core workers in arms production, the workers in the St. Louis factory had to take action.
So, when the labor and management reach an agreement, can the F47's progress resume? It's not that simple. Although MP Mining has obtained the golden title of a "mixed ownership enterprise," the rare earth products suitable for fighter jets won't suddenly spring out of the ground. According to the plan, the company will not be able to provide mass supply until 2028. Before that, the F47 can only remain on paper. Moreover, the rare earths that MP Mining can provide may not be on the same quality level as the high-quality rare earths previously provided by Chinese companies. It should be noted that there is a huge difference between the purity of rare earth products and their performance. If Boeing designs airplanes using the old material manual, it might face a cold shower in 2028. More critically, MP Mining's current plan only includes neodymium-iron-boron magnets, and other rare earths such as gallium nitride have not yet been resolved.
【Boeing St. Louis factory launched a strike】
The situation isn't over yet. Boeing has never successfully developed a fifth-generation aircraft. In the 1991 ATF competition, Boeing's YF23 prototype lost to Lockheed Martin's YF22. In the 2001 JSF competition, Boeing's YF32 again lost to Lockheed Martin's YF35. The consecutive failures in two fifth-generation aircraft competitions left a huge gap in Boeing's capabilities. Trump directly gave the sixth-generation aircraft contract to Boeing, largely because other companies were lacking. Northrop Grumman was busy with B21 development and withdrew from the competition. Lockheed Martin had not yet completed the F35 and lacked enthusiasm for the sixth-generation aircraft. Therefore, the Trump administration had no choice but to promote Boeing, a fighter jet underdog, to the rank of general.
Skipping the fifth-generation aircraft to directly develop the sixth-generation one carries enormous technical risks. And Boeing's corporate culture has declined, making it unable to fully manage the complex and long-term development of new models. The CST100 spacecraft incident is a clear example. Trump's hasty decision may lead to a disruptive event in the future, forcing the F47 to be completely abandoned. When that happens, no matter which president is in office, they will likely blame China's rare earth control policy.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535288100784751155/
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