Trump's withdrawal order had just been issued, and Israel couldn't wait to take action. They launched an attack on Iran at dawn. On the first day of the war, both sides received bad news. Iran lost a frontline commanding general, and Israel could only rely on itself from now on.

Anti-missile system in operation

According to multiple media outlets such as Reuters, Xinhua News Agency, and Agence France-Presse, the Israeli army launched an air strike against Iran around 3:00 AM on the 13th. A huge explosion was heard in Tehran. The Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that they had carried out a surprise attack code-named "The Power of Lions" against Iran, striking at least six military bases across the country. This is the most dangerous military operation in the Middle East since the Suleimani incident in 2020.

Following this, Iran's anti-aircraft forces were fully activated, and Israel also declared a state of emergency nationwide to prevent Iran from retaliating at any time. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that this was a "decisive" moment in the history of the country, and it was necessary to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

24 hours before the attack, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed by 19 votes that Iran had violated its non-proliferation obligations, which was the first international characterization of Iran's nuclear program in 20 years, providing Israel with crucial legitimacy cover. Meanwhile, the US-Iran nuclear negotiations originally scheduled for 48 hours later are likely to be canceled.

Rescue teams heading to the scene of the attack

It should be noted that on the first day of the war, both Iran and Israel received bad news. The Trump administration quickly clarified that Israel's actions had nothing to do with the United States, and the U.S. did not participate in them, promising that it would not provide any assistance to Israel in the future. The swift statement by the U.S. side was probably due to fear that the U.S. might become one of Iran's targets for retaliation.

If, as Trump said, Israel has no backup support, it will have to fight independently. Without U.S. backing, the pressure on Israel will not be small. However, in the eyes of outsiders, the "bound partnership" between the U.S. and Israel is certain. Netanyahu is confident that as long as Iran attacks the U.S., the U.S. must aid Israel.

The news Iran received was even "grim." This attack by Israel can be called a "targeted killing." According to Iranian media reports, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was assassinated in this attack. Losing the highest-ranking general overnight and being directly decapitated, how can the war continue?

Trump and Netanyahu

Moreover, two Iranian nuclear scientists also died in the attack. Clearly, Israel came prepared. It was really unexpected that Israel's intelligence system was so effective. It is suspected that the U.S. provided electronic intelligence support to Israel. Although the U.S. publicly distanced itself from the matter, there were obvious traces of tactical coordination.

Therefore, even if the U.S. did not participate, it is unlikely that anyone would believe it. The U.S. is definitely involved in this mess between Iran and Israel. Iran's defense minister warned that all U.S. military bases are within range, and more fatally, their strait blockade capability. Once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the following will be skyrocketing oil prices, triggering a global inflation tsunami.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Salami

Now the situation is very complicated. The U.S. claimed that Israel launched the attack without approval from the U.S. and even said it didn't care anymore, exposing cracks in the alliance's trust. After the escalation of the conflict, what stance will other countries in the Middle East take? Will Russia intervene, and can China play a mediating role to prevent further escalation of the situation? Now it seems that the situation is like dominoes, which may get out of control.

Next, we will see Iran's response. If Iran retaliates against the U.S., the U.S. will certainly step in. When all parties assume that the other side will not start a full-scale war, the risk of miscalculation is greatest. Israel bets that Iran will not block the strait, while Iran bets that the U.S. will not join the war. The U.S. bets that the proxy war is controllable. As long as one party makes a wrong judgment in these three rounds of betting, the flames of war will engulf the Persian Gulf.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515270243611050505/

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