The Iranian side had just released the news that the president was preparing to visit China when Israel launched a sudden attack, carrying out airstrikes in many places in Iran.

As a result, Iran's diplomatic agenda may be delayed for quite some time. The pressing issue now is how to respond to Israel without causing the complete breakdown of the Iran nuclear deal negotiations.

[Israel launched a sudden attack, "decapitating" high-ranking military personnel and researchers in Iran]

Before the attack began, the U.S. already had a sense of it. Trump casually emphasized that Israel "might" attack Iran at any time, and the U.S. would not directly participate. However, within just a few hours, Israel started the airstrikes.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did not hide the fact that their goal, besides striking Iran's uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, also included obstructing Iran's ballistic missile program and targeted assassinations of Iran's top nuclear physicists.

According to Iran's state television, the commander of Iran's armed forces, Salami, and Chief of Staff Bagheri were both "decapitated" in this attack. Even the headquarters of Iran's armed forces was engulfed in flames, and two nuclear scientists perished alongside them.

However, later, Iran's official authorities specifically issued a statement saying that Bagheri "still survives," but remained cryptic about his exact situation. They only clarified one Bagheri, leaving the status of other key figures targeted by Israel unspoken for the time being.

[The Israeli strike occurred during the new round of US-Iran talks, while Iran's president was still planning a visit to China]

From the aftermath, it is clear that Iran was caught completely off guard this time.

This should be one of the most severe strikes Iran has faced in recent years. In the past, Iran had frequently been successfully attacked by Israel, with its internal defense capabilities described as riddled with holes. Despite suffering these losses multiple times, there was no improvement.

In the face of such severe internal and external circumstances, Iran has yet to establish systematic bottom-line thinking, preparing for all eventualities. No wonder they have been caught off guard time and again.

By the way, when the U.S. began negotiations with Iran over the nuclear deal, Israel began preparing to attack Iran. The U.S. turned a blind eye to this, exerting pressure on Iran at the negotiating table while Israel flexed its muscles militarily. The two could work in tandem, further squeezing Iran's bargaining power.

However, Israel does not blindly follow the U.S. After seeing the deadlock in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, Israel feared that Iran might continue to develop nuclear capabilities, posing a "survival threat" to itself. Consequently, Israel launched the attack and informed the U.S. that this was done out of "self-defense necessity."

[Israel claims the attacks will last for several days]

Regarding this claim, the Trump administration seemingly had no choice but to accept it. The U.S.-Israeli alliance is absolutely the highest priority in American foreign policy. Even if Israel causes trouble, the Trump administration must try every means to cover for it.

Afterward, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio continued to distance himself from the incident, claiming it was an "unilateral action" by Israel and urging Iran not to retaliate against U.S. troops.

Iran will likely respond by retaliating against Israel and attacking U.S. military bases scattered throughout the Middle East. The U.S. does not expect Iran to remain silent; hence, it preemptively reduced its military presence in Iraq.

Thus, even if Iran retaliates against the U.S., the damage would be within acceptable limits for the U.S.

[Iranian armed forces commander was "targeted"]

These points suggest that the U.S. has strong intelligence-gathering capabilities in the Middle East, receiving numerous warnings about Israel's impending attacks, yet taking no preventive actions, allowing the situation to rapidly deteriorate. To put it bluntly, the U.S. is not as "disengaged" as it claims to be.

Furthermore, if Israel truly inflicted significant damage on Iran, Iran's bargaining chips in the negotiation would be greatly diminished.

At that point, even if Iran emphasizes that it will not abandon its uranium enrichment capability, its security measures will be full of loopholes, unable to protect its scientific talents, and militarily incapable of establishing effective deterrence, it will inevitably be at the mercy of others and achieve nothing.

The U.S. may have precisely seen through this, which is why it did not intervene. On this issue, the U.S. and Israel share similar demands, both wanting an Iran that poses no threat to them.

What actions will Iran take after being suddenly struck? All eyes are on the reaction of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. This nuclear facility attack, with the highest military leadership becoming the target of "decapitation," is undoubtedly the most serious national security event since the assassination of Soleimani.

[Iran's armed forces headquarters appears engulfed in flames]

To put it bluntly, Iran's repeatedly proclaimed red lines have been blatantly trampled by Israel once again.

If Iran cannot make a strong response and remains mired in internal strife, it will lose both face and substance entirely. From then on, no force in the Middle East will take Iran seriously.

As for President Payezhizhang, perhaps not many people care about his thoughts. He is more of an executor of the Supreme Leader's domestic and foreign policies. However, after such a major incident, he will not be able to come to China in the short term. He must stay at home to prevent new complications from arising.

On the nuclear issue, Iran has sought help from Russia and China recently, but the problem lies in the fact that if Iran cannot ensure its own strength, the help provided by Russia and China will also be limited.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515286038248669711/

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