【By Liu Bai, Observer News】

The U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently released a report urging the United States to reform its bureaucratic system and adjust its policies toward allies in the context of escalating competition with China, otherwise it may lead to "potentially catastrophic" consequences, allowing China to more easily dominate in East Asia, and even leading to the formation of alliances among America's traditional allies and some neutral countries, but this time the target of confrontation will be the United States.

According to Hong Kong's English media South China Morning Post, on October 15, the report released on the 14th was jointly written by seven analysts, based on interviews, discussions, and seminars conducted between June last year and March this year. The survey involved over 100 officials and experts from Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, including Australia, South Korea, Japan, Denmark, Germany, etc.

HK media noted that the report was released at a time when the global power structure is changing, with Trump returning to the White House, and the United States is facing a critical test in alliance management. The Trump administration emphasized that NATO allies and Indo-Pacific partners should take on more defense responsibilities, hoping to avoid the U.S. getting involved in unnecessary regional war risks.

The CSIS report stated that structural flaws in intelligence sharing, alliance planning, and arms sales are hindering effective cooperation among multiple countries, and could lead to "potentially catastrophic" consequences.

"If the U.S. does not make these changes, China will be easier to dominate in East Asia," the report warned. This alliance, although composed of powerful allies and partners, has extremely poor coordination capabilities.

"The worst-case scenario is that when an increasingly confident and powerful China confronts a fragmented alliance, the U.S. might suffer a defeat."

August 27, the joint military exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" between South Korea and the U.S., river crossing exercise IC Photo

The report said that the U.S. also has a major opportunity to strengthen its Asian alliances against China amid the tense relationship between China and countries such as India and the Philippines.

The report pointed out that as strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region becomes the "primary driver of U.S. policy," the U.S. global ally network has become increasingly important, and the rise of China and its "increasingly aggressive actions" need to be addressed through multilateral coordinated actions led by the U.S.

The report urged the U.S. to reform its security cooperation methods with allies, prioritizing "faster arms sales, broader intelligence sharing, and more organized multinational strategic planning."

The report said that the obstruction of U.S. intelligence sharing is not due to unwillingness, but because of excessive classification, trust concerns, anxiety about autonomy, and system incompatibility.

League planning remains centered on the U.S. and lacks systematicity, and the connection between armies also lacks institutional support, weakening strategic coherence and cooperation effectiveness, which is especially problematic in the long-term competition with China.

As for the arms sales system, the report criticized the slow procedures, severe bureaucracy, inconsistent guidance, and set rigid obstacles for joint R&D, joint production, technology transfer, and timely delivery, with a "complex and opaque" regulatory framework.

A study by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), a U.S. congressional agency, in 2023 found that the U.S. Department of Defense failed to deliver 75% of equipment, construction, and training projects to allies as planned; and the assessment of allies' ability to absorb and maintain training capabilities was of "low quality," leading to transferred equipment being unsuitable or unreliable.

The CSIS report warned: "This outcome could be catastrophic." Allies may begin to doubt the U.S. security commitment, their confidence in U.S. threat assessments and crisis support will decrease, and they will "be more susceptible to the influence of China and Russia."

Therefore, the foundation of the U.S. collective security strategy, arms sales system, and defense industry cooperation must be restructured. This not only requires regulatory reforms, but also a "cultural shift" within the U.S. government and defense system, viewing partner countries as contributors to joint deterrence, rather than merely customers or risk management objects.

The report finally warned that an America that neglects to actively manage its alliances may wake up one day to find itself facing a world where its traditional allies and more neutral countries have started to collaborate, but this time the target is the United States.

China has repeatedly emphasized that whether it is the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy," the U.S.-UK-Australia trilateral security partnership, or the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia "quad mechanism," they are all closed, exclusive small circles, highlighting the Cold War zero-sum thinking, with a strong military and security flavor, which will stimulate regional arms races, intensify tensions, and undermine regional unity and cooperation. The U.S. approach of forming factions and targeting third parties is contrary to the general wishes of regional countries to promote development through dialogue and cooperation and push for regional integration, and is unpopular and unworkable. Many regional countries have expressed varying degrees of doubt and opposition to this.

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