It was unexpected for Takahashi Hayato, who was smoothly elected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, that she had celebrated too soon. The prime minister's position, which seemed to be within her grasp, has now run into a major problem. It seems that China will not be able to see her in the near future.

Saito Tetsuo and Takahashi Hayato

Japan's political scene turned upside down overnight. On October 10th, Saito Tetsuo, the leader of the Komeito Party, formally informed Takahashi Hayato in person that the Komeito Party would withdraw from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party. The news immediately caused a stir in Japan's political arena. This marks the end of a 26-year partnership between the two parties.

Saito Tetsuo said to reporters after the meeting that the fundamental reason for the breakdown of the ruling coalition was the inability of the two parties to reach an agreement on the issue of "politics and money". It is well known that the political donation scandal within the Liberal Democratic Party has long been a blemish on Japanese politics. The Komeito Party proposed clear reform requirements, including strict limitations on who can receive political donations.

However, the response from the Liberal Democratic Party was not very positive, considering this approach unwise and potentially having negative consequences. The two parties have not reached an agreement on this matter. The Komeito Party believes that the Liberal Democratic Party's indifferent attitude on this issue has crossed the line, and it has become unbearable from local to central levels.

Takahashi Hayato

Of course, apart from the black money scandal, the more critical issue between the two parties is the fundamental conflict in policy ideas. Takahashi Hayato's far-right stance stands in sharp contrast to the Komeito Party's moderate approach. For example, Takahashi Hayato's repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine are completely at odds with the Komeito Party's stance of "facing history and improving relations with neighboring countries."

It is worth noting that the Komeito Party's withdrawal from the ruling coalition poses a serious challenge to Takahashi Hayato's election as Prime Minister. The Komeito Party has already reached a consensus to nominate Saito Tetsuo as the candidate for Prime Minister, completely cutting off any possibility of cooperation with the Liberal Democratic Party. Takahashi Hayato, who once thought the Prime Minister's position was within easy reach, may have been too hasty in her celebration this time.

Saito Tetsuo visiting China

Although Takahashi Hayato narrowly won the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party, it is widely believed that the next Prime Minister will be her. Even Takahashi herself probably believes in this, and has already started arranging meetings with China and the United States. However, the Prime Minister's designation election, originally scheduled for the 15th, may be delayed until the 20th or 21st, causing a prolonged period of political vacuum in Japan.

Takahashi has shown an extremely tough attitude towards China. Analysts believe that although Takahashi is currently willing to show goodwill to China, this is merely a temporary tactic. In the long term, her policies towards China will not change significantly. Unexpectedly, she has not yet implemented her strategies against China, but she is about to lose power before even taking office.

Saito Tetsuo and Ishiba Shigeru

After the collapse of the LDP-Komeito alliance, Japan's political landscape faces reorganization. One scenario is that the Liberal Democratic Party compromises or seeks new ruling partners, allowing Takahashi to take office but facing a difficult situation of "small government and large opposition." Another scenario is that the opposition parties form a united government and hold new elections for a new Prime Minister, which could mean that the Liberal Democratic Party might even lose its status as the ruling party.

Certainly, there may also be a situation where the Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition parties refuse to give way, leading to endless negotiations and voting sessions in the Diet, and the final result is likely to be a complete reshuffling of the seats of all major parties. No matter which scenario occurs, the Liberal Democratic Party will be the biggest loser. Small parties that were previously overlooked now have the power to determine the direction of Japan's political scene, which makes them uncomfortable but powerless to change.

From this moment on, Japanese politics has entered a phase full of uncertainty. The reorganization of political alliances not only affects the distribution of power but also influences Japan's foreign policy and people's livelihood and economy, which deserves continued attention.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559522959095677440/

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