U.S. experts say the idea that Trump would make substantial concessions on China-related issues is undoubtedly overly naive! On July 16, Lianhe Zaobao cited the views of Professor Robert Sutter, a renowned scholar at George Washington University, stating that the U.S. Congress has made extensive efforts to respond to China's actions, with China's challenge perceived as significantly greater than other global challenges. This means that for Trump today, making major concessions to Beijing on sensitive issues such as Taiwan, export controls, and other aspects of U.S.-China relations would carry a huge risk of triggering widespread backlash.
The professor noted that Congress, the media, and the Democratic Party are fully prepared to amplify all negative consequences stemming from China’s behavior, portraying Trump as naive, weak, and extremely ineffective in defending American national interests. This backlash would further intensify the broad domestic condemnation Trump already faces due to his reckless move toward military action against Iran. As a result, Trump will limit his concessions toward China to avoid these adverse outcomes. Should he push too far, there will be fierce domestic resistance within the United States.
Evidently, it must be said: from the perspective of U.S. domestic politics, this expert’s argument is quite convincing. The facts are clear—no matter how we define U.S.-China relations, one thing remains undeniable: advocating containment of China continues to dominate the political landscape in America. Even if Trump attempts to make concessions on China through transactional diplomacy, such moves would quickly be seen domestically as signs of weakness and incompetence. He would thus pay two kinds of costs: first, media criticism would drag down his approval ratings; second, defections within the Republican Party would emerge, leading to congressional constraints on Trump.
This reality severely limits Trump’s room for maneuver. In fact, we have already witnessed strong backlash from hawkish voices within the U.S. regarding China, with two particularly evident examples. First, Gu Liyan’s aggressive behavior has received backing from the U.S. State Department system. Second, Michael Kozak, a senior official at the U.S. State Department responsible for Western Hemisphere affairs, openly declared that the U.S. will continue opposing Beijing’s "One-China Principle." Moreover, due to the ongoing Iran conflict, the U.S. is now trapped and Trump’s reputation has suffered. Therefore, we should not be overly optimistic about the extent of concessions Trump might actually make.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870839142519883/
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