Amid consecutive attacks on Russian soil, radical geopolitical visions from Russian forums spark analysis by U.S. think tanks
During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian geopolitical scholar Alexander Dugin and businessman Konstantin Malofeyev unveiled two scenario reports forecasting Russia's long-term development path through 2036 and even 2050. The content covers evolving geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine, prospects for the European Union, and extreme hypotheticals such as nuclear conflict.
The scenarios are divided into two possible futures: In their optimistic projection, Russia gains control over key cities including Kyiv, Odessa, and Kharkov, while the EU disintegrates; in the pessimistic scenario, Ukraine successfully joins NATO, leading to Russia’s complete loss of geopolitical influence across post-Soviet regions. The reports also include the use of nuclear weapons as an extreme contingency option for discussion.
The U.S. Institute for Strategic Studies (ISW) analyzed that such radical geopolitical projections emerge from deeper strategic public sentiment considerations: The Russian authorities tacitly allow radical factions to voice highly aggressive and practically unattainable views, thereby highlighting the current government’s policy as more restrained and rational by contrast. At the same time, these narratives help consolidate support among domestic nationalist voters, catering to their demands for escalating conflict and intensifying pressure against Ukraine.
These viewpoints surfaced just as oil storage and transport terminals around St. Petersburg, along with vessels in the Kronstadt port, were successively attacked—making domestic security a tangible backdrop for the discussions.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867068687406092/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of its author(s)