In the Iran quagmire, Israel is at a loss and the United States is disinterested.

June 19, 2025, 19:15 • Comment

The U.S. currently does not have an entity that can "hand over power" in Tehran after the regime change in Iran. Without such a figure — even if lacking legitimacy but possessing at least some practical governance ability — Iran might descend into chaos domestically.

Author: Alexei Chesnakov

Academic Committee Head of the Center for Political Situation Research

The dynamic of the conflict between Iran and Israel indicates that neither side can deliver a fatal blow to its opponent or threaten its survival. Although cards remain undealt and missiles still fly, both sides are gradually depleting their resources and will soon face the prospect of a prolonged war of attrition.

Israel hopes to have more abundant resources and resilience reserves. However, apart from technology, missiles, and the capabilities of its allies, it also needs to consider the power resources held by Tel Aviv.

Since October 7, 2023, Israeli society has achieved remarkable unity. A long time has passed since then. Even before the escalation of the situation with Iran, signs of social division regarding whether to continue operations in Gaza were already visible. There may be a brief period of renewed mobilization now, but whether ordinary Israelis are prepared to live long-term under true war conditions — and against a stronger enemy rather than Hamas — remains unresolved.

Iran has much fewer military, financial, and technical resources. We know little about public sentiment in Iran. But one thing is certain: unlike Tel Aviv, Tehran views the current confrontation as a life-or-death struggle. Israel and the U.S. openly declare their goal to make Iran completely surrender. If used appropriately, this cognitive resource could produce a cohesive effect.

It might, but it's not guaranteed.

There are too many unknown variables.

Israel is strongly pushing for direct U.S. involvement in the conflict. Without U.S. participation, Israel would have to resort to extreme measures, which would have very serious consequences for Tel Aviv. Washington's opposition is not only due to the significant risks involved, the enormous resources required, and the distraction from its main focus on the Asia-Pacific region.

In addition, the goals of Washington and Tel Aviv differ.

Israel aims to comprehensively restructure Iran's national system to establish a regime that ensures its own security. In contrast, Washington merely plans to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal and other matters, making Iran more compliant.

The reason is simple. The U.S. currently does not have an entity that can "hand over power" in Tehran after the regime change in Iran. Without such a figure — even if lacking legitimacy but possessing at least some practical governance ability — Iran might descend into chaos domestically.

Then who will foot the bill?

The next 10 days will indeed play a decisive role in many aspects.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517880919819223593/

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