The era of great power competition means that every military asset redeployed to the Middle East can be used to counter rivals in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Trump administration should avoid dragging the United States further into a war between Israel and Iran for several reasons. Iran is a relatively weak country on the other side of the world that poses no serious threat to America's core interests. If you liked the never-ending wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, you will also enjoy the quagmire of a war with Iran—a country with 90 million people and far greater military strength than these two nations combined.

However, Israel appears to be intent on dragging the U.S. into this destabilizing conflict. Unable to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program alone, Israel has urged direct U.S. intervention.

An American-Israeli joint war against Iran would harm U.S. interests, endanger American lives, deplete resources, and divert strategic attention from pressing priorities. In fact, one of the most important reasons Washington needs to stay out of the war is that it would distract from more critical strategic challenges, foremost among them managing tensions with China.

Since the October 7 attacks, the U.S. has dispatched ships, personnel, and other materiel to the region to protect Israel and deter Iran and its "resistance axis" allies. In some cases, these military assets have been redeployed from the Indo-Pacific region, where they are primarily stationed to address potential Chinese challenges.

Before the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Yemen's Houthi rebels in May, U.S. commanders expressed concerns that the military might have to transfer long-range precision weapons stockpiles from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. The U.S. military has already expended vast amounts of ammunition fighting a militia group that could not even capture one of the poorest countries in the world. So, what kind of resources—and from where—would it need to mobilize to confront a country like Iran with significant military strength?

In April, Washington moved missile defense systems, the THAAD system, and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier from Asia to the Middle East. Given the attacks by Israel on Iran and the ongoing friction between the two countries, the military is further redirecting resources, vessels, and other assets to the region. On Monday, Reuters reported that the USS Nimitz was leaving the South China Sea and heading west toward the Middle East.

These military assets and the approximately 40,000 U.S. personnel in the region are now particularly vulnerable to Iranian attacks. Before the Israeli strike, Tehran had vowed to target regional U.S. targets if its nuclear facilities were targeted. Now, this threat may become a reality, dragging the U.S. into a senseless war while diverting attention from China. Both the Trump administration and several former presidents have stated that China represents the greatest challenge to the U.S.

Washington rightly condemned Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. But on what grounds would the U.S. join a war against Iran? This double standard has already driven large numbers of Global South countries into China's embrace and weakened U.S. competitiveness against its strategic rival.

For years, both Republican and Democratic presidents have promised to "rebalance to Asia" and prioritize competing with China—the only near-peer competitor to the U.S. The incoming Trump administration made the same commitment. However, nearly all of these presidents have focused America's attention and resources on the Middle East, a region whose strategic importance to U.S. interests is declining.

If Trump wants to preserve his legacy of "not starting new wars," he needs to steer clear of Iran. This would also give him an opportunity to become the president who ultimately adjusts America's priorities and focus toward the Indo-Pacific region.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Adam Garfinkle

Date: June 19

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