【Military Second Dimension】 Author: Golden Bomber

Recently, a surprising message suddenly spread on foreign social media, claiming that China's 16 Xian H-20 large strategic transport aircraft had allegedly made an emergency landing at Tehran Airport to deliver the HQ-9BE air defense missile system to Iran. Many foreign netizens saw this news and left comments below, expressing their hope to see a confrontation between Chinese air defense missiles and American advanced aircraft and missiles. However, upon careful analysis of the background behind this news, it is highly likely that the claim about Iran having a large-scale deployment of Chinese air defense weapons is a "fake news".

▲H-20

The reason why this news is untrustworthy is twofold. On one hand, neither the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese official sources, nor the Iranian Ministry of Defense or military have given the most direct response. If there were such a large-scale military transaction between China and Iran, even if China wanted to remain low-key, Iran would probably not completely avoid publicity. After all, Iran is currently in a very turbulent period, and the arrival of a large number of air defense missile systems could stabilize the military morale and promote internal unity. From any perspective, Iran has no reason to remain quiet about it.

On the other hand, if China really deployed as many as 16 H-20 transport aircraft in one go or in batches, it would be an unprecedented major operation. Such a flight scale would not only be difficult to escape the monitoring of U.S. and Israeli intelligence networks but would also leave traces. Although the H-20 usually turns off its transponder when transporting weapons, there are a large number of "flight monitoring enthusiasts" around the world who would post this information on Flightradar24. However, the current pictures are either photoshopped or old images, with little matching the news itself, making it very suspicious.

▲HQ-9BE

Therefore, from multiple perspectives, this is likely a false online rumor orchestrated by some malicious netizens. Following the principle that "the one who benefits is likely the one who spreads the rumor," the real mastermind behind this news is likely the Iranians themselves.

There have been rumors about Iran possibly purchasing or accepting the Chinese HQ-9BE air defense missile system for at least over 10 years. By mid-2025, these rumors reached their peak. At that time, Israel and Iran were involved in the "12-Day War," during which Israeli aircraft entered Iranian airspace unimpeded, launching a large-scale air strike that even destroyed several Russian-made S-300 air defense missile launch vehicles, fully exposing serious vulnerabilities in Iran's air defense system. After the war, Iran urgently needed to rebuild its air defense capabilities, leading to continuous reports about importing the HQ-9BE system. Some reports even suggested that due to cash flow issues, Iran might consider a "oil-for-weapons" method to settle the payment with China. However, despite the ongoing rumors, Iran never showed any actual purchase actions.

▲Iran Air Combat Command Center

The performance of the HQ-9 air defense missile system is quite advanced. Even the export version has certain performance reductions, but it still has strong competitiveness among similar air defense missile systems worldwide. According to public information, the HQ-9 has been exported to Azerbaijan, and last November, the country publicly showcased it in a very high-profile manner. The basic range of this missile is about 200 to 300 kilometers, with an interception height of up to 30,000 meters, and it has strong capabilities against stealth fighters and anti-saturation attacks. It is very suitable for countering Israeli F-35, F-15, or similar U.S. aircraft.

China and Iran have comprehensive cooperation agreements, and military exchanges between the two countries are extremely frequent. Although Iran's current air defense missile systems mainly consist of Russian equipment, it has previously imported two types of air defense equipment from China. One is the JY-26 early warning radar, and the other is the JY-10 air defense command system. The JY-26 radar is a three-coordinate radar that uses advanced active phased array technology, with a detection range of more than 500 kilometers. Its detection distance for ballistic missile targets reaches as far as 800 kilometers. It is deployed on a mobile truck, operated by a team of 10 people, and can be deployed within one hour. Its mobility and detection range are among the best in the world. The JY-26 radar has also been exported to many countries, and in China and Venezuela, it has successfully detected the activities of U.S. F-22 fighter jets.

▲HQ-9

JY-10 is an air defense command system. According to reports from "Jane's Air Defence Weekly," Iran purchased it from China around 2017. It was developed by China Electronics Technology Group and mainly processes data from various air defense radars within an 800-kilometer range. It is said to be able to simultaneously receive and process up to 100 aerial tracks and then provide them to air defense missiles as interception references.

JY-10 features high energy efficiency, high reliability, and high automation. One of its biggest advantages is that it uses a lot of commercial technologies and components, making maintenance and upgrades relatively convenient. With these two devices, Iran quickly announced in 2016 the establishment of an air defense identification zone over its territory and the Persian Gulf region, monitoring aircraft activities in the area. However, the recent practical conflicts have shown that neither the Russian S-300-based air defense missile systems nor the Chinese long-range early warning and command systems centered around the JY-26 and JY-10 could fully protect Iran's airspace.

▲Main Model of Iran's Air Defense Missile Systems

The possible reasons may be that facing the strong strikes from Israel, Iran does not want to expose all its assets, to avoid being "completely cleared out" by Israel. In addition, Iran's airspace covers as much as 1.6 million square kilometers, generally requiring dozens of advanced air defense missile systems to cover comprehensively. Compared to Israel, which has more than a hundred F-35 fighter jets, Iran has only about four S-300PMU-2, several "Bavar"-373 systems, and about 30 "Tor"-M1 systems available, with the total number of launch vehicles estimated to be no more than 200, resulting in a huge disparity in strength. The remaining systems are quite outdated and are basically ineffective against widespread electromagnetic suppression. For Iran, purchasing some HQ-9BE could indeed help fill some air defense gaps, but if the quantity is insufficient, it would not be enough to make the defenses impenetrable.

Taking this recent rumor as an example, according to data, the maximum load capacity of the Chinese H-20 strategic transport aircraft is approximately 66 tons, with a cargo hold length of 20 meters, and a width and height of 4 meters each. A complete configuration of the HQ-9BE air defense missile system includes at least 6 to 8 8×8 wheeled heavy chassis launch vehicles, 1 to 2 phased array radar vehicles, as well as command vehicles, power supply vehicles, and several auxiliary vehicles for ammunition loading. A standard configuration would weigh at least 400 to 600 tons.

▲HQ-9

With a total carrying capacity of about 1,056 tons, 16 H-20s could carry at most one system. Therefore, large-scale delivery of high-end air defense systems is mostly done by ship, and air transport is rare. Moreover, even if China really deployed 16 H-20s to transport air defense missiles to Iran, it would not be sufficient to give it enough strength to deal with the threats from the U.S. and Israel in a short time, and the practical significance would be very limited.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7598475352654021139/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.