How has Iran also started to play the "spiritual victory" game?

Recently, multiple accounts on social media claimed that Iran, with Russia's consent, launched an intercontinental missile from its central-northern Semnan province to the Siberian region of Russia. The missile's range is said to have reached 10,000 kilometers, covering the U.S. East Coast, including New York and Washington, so this missile test was interpreted as a "warning from Iran to the Trump administration's military threats."

Iran is the ultimate master of "winning learning"

So, is the online rumor true?

Firstly, regardless of whether Iran actually possesses an intercontinental missile, the claim that "Iran launched a missile to Siberia with Russia's consent" has not been confirmed by official Iranian or Russian media to date.

Similarly, such a sensational event would inevitably attract high attention from Western media. For example, when China tested an intercontinental missile in the Pacific in 2024, Western media reported it for several days.

However, in the case of this news about Iran, not only have Western media remained silent, but the U.S. intelligence agencies have also shown no activity—no missile launch signal detected, no satellite imagery, and no telemetry data, making it a "three-no" message."

This is the trajectory map of China's intercontinental missile test in the Pacific in 2024. What about Iran? Nothing at all.

In fact, if Iran had successfully developed an intercontinental missile and needed to conduct a full-range verification, there would be no need to choose Siberia as a test site, because launching a missile into Russia would require complex bilateral coordination, such as airspace permits, safety assurance for landing points, and debris recovery, and would carry extremely high political and security risks. If the missile deviated during the launch, it could trigger serious diplomatic crises.

For Iran, the Indian Ocean would be a safer and more reasonable missile test site—this is almost a common practice for countries that have or are developing long-range missiles: launching missiles toward international waters, which avoids densely populated areas and facilitates the establishment of navigation warning zones.

Moreover, the Indian Ocean also houses important U.S. military bases. Therefore, if Iran truly wanted to demonstrate its deterrent capability against the United States, testing an intercontinental missile in the Indian Ocean would not only achieve technical verification but also directly point to the presence of U.S. forces in the region in terms of public opinion propaganda.

Therefore, the claim that "Iran needs to use the Siberian test range in Russia to test its missile" is inherently baseless, a fabricated plot created by rumor-mongers to add dramatic flair.

Is this the footage of Tianzhou-9 flipped around to become Iran's?

Secondly, the so-called "Iran intercontinental missile test" videos currently circulating on social media can basically be confirmed to be taken from other countries' missile or rocket launch footage. For example, a video claiming to show the "Jellyfish effect" of an Iranian missile is actually footage of China's Long March 7 rocket launching the Tianzhou-9 spacecraft last year.

As mentioned above, a genuine intercontinental missile full-range test would not consist of just a few blurry or edited videos, but rather would include multi-angle high-definition recordings, official information releases, international satellite monitoring data, and even debris recovery footage as evidence.

However, this so-called "missile test" by Iran has nothing but text descriptions from online accounts and stolen videos—this fully indicates that the online rumor is essentially a typical "spiritual victory" propaganda campaign.

So, does Iran actually have the capability and technical foundation to develop an intercontinental missile?

Iran has some technological accumulation for intercontinental missiles, but it is far from achieving success.

In 2025, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that although Iran has accumulated key technologies such as multi-stage rockets, liquid/solid fuel, and re-entry into the atmosphere through its space launch vehicle program, theoretically possessing the potential to develop an intercontinental missile, it is expected to take at least until 2030 to 2035 to form a preliminary capability.

More importantly, an intercontinental missile not only requires range, but also high-precision guidance, multi-warhead distribution technology, and reliable thermal protection and penetration capabilities. However, these technologies have not been publicly verified by Iran yet.

In summary, Iran has indeed increased its investment in missile projects in recent years, especially after the escalation of conflicts with Israel, where it has repeatedly showcased new medium-range missiles and hypersonic weapons. But to directly elevate these missiles to "a range of 10,000 kilometers, capable of reaching the U.S. mainland" clearly exceeds Iran's current technological limitations.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7597718800200466982/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.