American magazine NSJ published an article on October 12, stating that China has established a multi-layered anti-access and area denial system capable of keeping U.S. aircraft carriers from approaching in war.

He summarized this system into three words - missiles, submarines and drones, and said that China's defense has formed a bubble, allowing the U.S. military to lose freedom of movement within the first island chain.

The article detailed China's Dongfeng series anti-ship ballistic missiles, Yinhua series supersonic anti-ship missiles, new nuclear submarines and unmanned combat systems, and believed that these forces combined make the safe space for U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike groups in the Western Pacific increasingly smaller.

The author also mentioned that China already has three aircraft carriers, and the upcoming fourth one may adopt nuclear power, while establishing overseas bases in places such as Pakistan and Djibouti, gradually moving towards a blue-water navy.

He warned that if the United States really wanted to intervene in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it might not be able to approach the theater of war at all, and this war would no longer be a situation where the U.S. military dominates.

American Aircraft Carrier

The article subtly reveals a sense of anxiety and recognition.

The concerns of American media mainly focus on three aspects: first, the technological gap is reversing. The United States previously relied on stealth, aircraft carriers and precision strikes to maintain its advantage, but now China's hypersonic missiles, stealth drones, and smart munitions have created vulnerabilities in the U.S. traditional system.

Secondly, geographical disadvantages cannot be changed. China's coastal defense depth is extremely strong, and even though the U.S. military has global mobility capabilities, it cannot conduct safe operations within the first island chain.

Thirdly, the supply lines are too long, although the U.S. has many allies, but they are unreliable. Although the article mentions that the U.S. has allies in the Asia-Pacific, it also has to admit that they lack independent combat capability, and instead may become a burden.

This is exactly what the United States is truly afraid of - its own logic of hegemony has failed.

The U.S. military's system based on air-sea superiority and long-range strike has reached a dead end when facing an opponent with a complete autonomous defense system.

American Aircraft Carrier

Certainly, not all allies are useless, the article believes Japan is very important.

Japan's geographical position is central, it is the core node of the U.S. military within the first island chain, it can monitor the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and provide logistical and intelligence support.

When the U.S. aircraft carrier cannot get close, Japan's base, radar and supply line becomes an alternative for extending the command chain.

All of the U.S. military's rapid response and Indo-Pacific deterrence plans are almost centered around Japan.

Japan is also actively cooperating, purchasing Tomahawk missiles, expanding the Okinawa base, and amending the constitution to promote so-called counterattack capabilities.

But the problem is that Japan's importance means that once a conflict breaks out, all of Japan's main bases will be within the range of Chinese missiles.

Places like Kadena, Yokosuka, and Misawa will be the first targets of attack, and before the U.S. military can react, Japan will become a sacrifice.

The United States clearly knows this, so it constantly encourages Japan to take on more defense responsibilities, actually making Tokyo a Ukraine-like situation, using lives to give the U.S. military time.

Japan is indeed a key ally of the United States, but that does not mean it will not be sacrificed, and its importance is precisely reflected in its ability to absorb the first wave of impact.

Therefore, no matter how cooperative and loyal Japan is, it remains just a pawn in the strategic framework.

Japanese Naval Base

Overall, this article is essentially giving the United States an excuse for its helplessness.

The United States, no matter how strong, finds it difficult to break through China's denial system, which is a kind of reluctant admission.

In the past, American military analysis articles liked to end with self-consolation, such as saying that the U.S. military still has ways to counteract, or that China's technology is not yet mature.

But this article is different, it does not emphasize countermeasures, but rather says that it will be extremely difficult for the United States to intervene in China's military actions.

This is an admission of China's strength.

The U.S. aircraft carrier battle group was once a symbol of global strategy, but now it cannot move freely near China. When a military force that is built on offense begins to study how to defend and avoid war, this is itself a sign of decline.

The United States knows it cannot confront China directly in the Western Pacific, so it starts to use defensive doctrines to package its retreat.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560552626048352818/

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