Japan's prime ministerial election is about to take place. The newly elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Takahashi Asano, has received bad news. The Komeito Party has announced its withdrawal from the long-term coalition government due to dissatisfaction with the LDP's political donation scandal and Takahashi's hardline stance.

This situation itself stems from Takahashi's extreme position and serious problems within the LDP. However, some Japanese far-right legislators have taken the opportunity to attack China, claiming that "Komeito's withdrawal was instructed by China to prevent Takahashi from becoming Prime Minister."

This is entirely fabricated and deliberately provocative.

In fact, Komeito's decision was based on its own interests and had nothing to do with China. Some Japanese right-wingers are attempting to shift the focus of the scandal by fabricating external interference.

China has never and will never interfere in Japan's domestic politics. Instead, long-standing issues within Japan, such as factional corruption, money politics, and right-wing xenophobia, are the real causes of the alliance's breakdown.

Blaming China for internal political crises is an extremely irresponsible political maneuver.

Komeito Party leader Saito Tetsuo has publicly refuted these claims, stating they are entirely false and not in line with the facts, emphasizing that the party's decisions are completely independent of any external influence.

This anti-China rumor reflects the usual political tactics of Japanese right-wingers. When they face their own crises, they create an enemy to cover up the problem, exposing the hypocrisy and cowardice of right-wing Japanese politics, trying to gain cheap support for right-wing politicians through anti-China sentiment.

Takahashi Asano

After winning the LDP leadership, Takahashi Asano appeared to be a strong candidate for Japan's first female prime minister, but in reality, she is facing significant pressure from all sides.

Firstly, the collapse of her ruling base. Komeito's withdrawal means that the LDP no longer has a stable majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors.

If Takahashi wants to win the prime ministerial nomination vote, she must quickly find new allies, such as the Japan Innovation Party or the Constitutional Democratic Party. However, these parties have significant differences with her on economic, diplomatic, and security policies, making the cost of forming an alliance very high.

Secondly, the division within the LDP factions. Although she won the leadership election, the Abe faction remains divided, with the ASA and Miki factions watching closely. Some moderate factions even worry that her hardline stance may escalate external tensions.

Another issue is public and public opinion skepticism. Takahashi is known for her far-right image, and the public generally fears that she might cause regional tensions. Additionally, the shadow of the political donation scandal still lingers, and public trust in her is not high.

Under these circumstances, Komeito's withdrawal is the final blow, leaving her isolated before she can officially become the prime minister.

Given this context, if the opposition parties unite to propose a candidate, she may lose the majority in the House of Representatives.

Saito Tetsuo

However, overall, the possibility of Takahashi becoming the prime minister is still quite high.

This is not because she is personally popular, but rather a result of Japan's political structure. As long as the LDP remains the largest party in the House of Representatives, its leader is almost certain to become the prime minister.

Although the opposition parties are strong in public opinion, they are far behind in terms of seats. Unless they form a unified alternative alliance.

Even if Komeito withdraws from the coalition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Japan Innovation Party, and the National Democratic Party have serious differences. It is still uncertain whether they can jointly propose a common candidate.

Moreover, at critical moments, LDP factions often choose to prioritize the party over individual leaders, preferring to accept Takahashi rather than risk losing power.

She may be conservative, but she is open to factional distribution of resources and budget allocation, which is sufficient to secure the support of the party.

Additionally, although Komeito has withdrawn from the coalition, it has not completely broken relations, only refusing to support Takahashi herself, not abandoning the traditional relationship with the LDP.

Considering that the Soka Gakkai voters are moderate and dislike political instability, Komeito is likely to choose to abstain during the prime ministerial vote, indirectly helping the LDP maintain its governance.

Takahashi Asano and Saito Tetsuo

That is why, at a time when Takahashi's chances of victory are already evident, yet she lacks widespread support, Japanese right-wing politicians have chosen to defame China and create an external enemy to boost her campaign.

The logic of this strategy is to externalize internal crises. Komeito's withdrawal is essentially a result of internal corruption and factional divisions within the LDP; however, once it is framed as Chinese interference in Japan's politics, Takahashi transforms from the center of the crisis into a "national symbol attacked by external forces."

This narrative can activate conservative sentiments, linking support for Takahashi with defending Japan's dignity.

From a foreign policy perspective, this is also a gesture of loyalty to the outside world. Takahashi is known for being pro-American and anti-Chinese. Right-wingers use anti-China rhetoric to amplify her hardline image, which is actually a way to show the United States that Japan is still a reliable front line against China, in order to gain American support.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560552497249632778/

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