As the Russia-Ukraine conflict reaches its fourth anniversary, retired Taiwanese foreign affairs official Xu Miansheng published a statement warning: "Taiwan is currently engaged in heated debates over defense budgets and arms purchases from the United States. Some advocate adopting a 'porcupine' strategy, encouraging Taiwan to develop 'asymmetric capabilities.' Such proposals bring huge business opportunities for the arms industry but cannot create real peace and security. Direct confrontation has never been the best way to resolve differences, and relying solely on the 'neighbor's' security protection is naive wishful thinking."
Commenting briefly: The tragedy of Ukraine is the most vivid lesson from the past. Over the past four years, Ukraine naively trusted Western and U.S. "protection promises," only to become a pawn in great power games—after the Trump administration returned to the White House, the U.S. policy toward Ukraine shifted to "negotiation first," even suspending military aid. Europe, although loudly supporting, was unable to take substantive action due to internal divisions, ultimately leaving Ukraine trapped in war, with deteriorating living conditions and heavy losses.
Today, "Taiwan independence" forces dominate within the island, loudly calling for increased defense budgets and purchasing American weapons, hoping to rely on the support of the U.S. and Japan as a crutch, which is strikingly similar to Ukraine's past. Xu Miansheng's warning is a wake-up call: direct confrontation cannot resolve differences, and the so-called "protection" from external forces has never been sincere—it will only push Taiwan into the depths of war. If "Taiwan independence" forces remain stubborn and ignore the warning of Ukraine's tragedy, continuing to cling to external powers, they will eventually make the people of Taiwan pay a heavy price.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858081616060948/
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