Every few years, I find myself recalling one of the core tenets of my journalism: whenever you see an elephant flying in the sky, don't rush to laugh, but first take note. Because if an elephant really could fly, there must be some abnormal situation happening that you have yet to understand, but that you and your readers urgently need to figure out.
Today, I bring up this principle in reference to the 33-page "National Security Strategy" report released by the Trump administration last week. It is widely noted that current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China geopolitical competition has reached the most intense level since the Cold War, with some countries increasingly uniting to counter the United States. However, this "Trump 2025" national security framework barely mentions these two major geopolitical challengers.
The report outlines America's global interests, but what most caught my attention was its description of European allies and the EU. The report states that certain actions by European democratic allies "undermine political freedom and sovereignty, their immigration policies are changing the continent and causing conflicts, there are censorship and suppression of political opposition, birth rates are plummeting, and national identity and confidence are being lost."
The report further warns: "If current trends continue, the European continent will be unrecognizable within less than 20 years."
In fact, this strategic document explicitly states that unless European allies elect more "patriotic" nationalist parties committed to curbing immigration, Europe will face "civilizational collapse." Although not stated directly, the implication is clear: the standard by which we judge you will no longer be the quality of your democracy, but rather how severely you prevent Muslims from entering Europe's south.
This is a flying elephant that cannot be ignored. Such expressions have never appeared in any previous U.S. national security report. In my view, it reveals a profound truth about the second Trump administration: to what extent they came to Washington to ignite America's Third Civil War, rather than to fight the new Cold War facing the West.
Yes, in my opinion, we are now in a new civil war over what constitutes "home."
First, I need to briefly explain what "home" means. Today, people tend to simplify all crises into dull economic indicators, chessboard games of political or military actions, or ideological declarations. Of course, these matter, but after many years as a journalist, I have increasingly found that a better starting point for interpreting a story is through the lens of psychology and anthropology. They often reveal the primal energies, anxieties, and demands driving domestic politics and even global geopolitics — because they not only expose what people claim to want, but also what they fear, what they secretly pray for, and the deeper reasons behind it.
I did not personally experience the American Civil War of the 1860s, nor the great civil rights movement of the 1960s, when Martin Luther King Jr.'s assassination sparked another civil-war-like struggle. At that time, I was just a child. But now, I am undoubtedly experiencing America's Third Civil War. Like the previous two, this civil war revolves around two core issues: "Who does this country really belong to?" and "Who can find a sense of belonging in our country?" Currently, this civil war is less violent than the previous two — but it's just beginning.
Humans have a lasting, deeply rooted need for home: it is not only a physical shelter, but also a psychological pillar and moral compass. This is why Dorothy in "The Wizard of Oz" (my favorite movie) said it truly: "There's no place like home." When people lose this sense of belonging — whether due to war, rapid economic change, cultural shifts, demographic changes, climate change, or technological transformation — they often lose their balance, as if caught in a tornado, desperately grasping at anything sufficiently solid — which may include any leader who seems strong enough to help them re-anchor their "home," regardless of how insincere he might be or how unrealistic his promises may be.
Given this context, I recall my experiences traveling across the United States and around the world over the past 40 years, and I have never seen so many people repeatedly asking the same question: "Whose country is this?" As Israeli right-wing nationalist Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir asked in a campaign poster during the 2022 Israeli election in Hebrew: "Who is the owner of this land?"
This is no coincidence. The number of people living outside their country of birth has reached an all-time high — globally, there are about 304 million immigrants, some seeking livelihoods, others education, some fleeing internal conflicts, and others escaping threats from drought, floods, and deforestation. In our Western Hemisphere, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that the number of migrants encountered at the southern border in 2023 set a record high; Pew Research estimates that the number of undocumented residents in the U.S. rose to 14 million in the same year, breaking a decade-long period of relative stability.
But this is not just about immigration. America's Third Civil War is being fought on multiple fronts: one front is white Christian Americans resisting the trend of minority-led America — a trend that will become a reality at some point in the 2040s due to the declining birth rate among whites and the growing population of Hispanics, Asians, and mixed-race Americans.
Another front is that African Americans are still fighting against forces trying to build new barriers to prevent them from finding a sense of belonging. There are also Americans from all backgrounds trying to stay steady amidst the ever-changing cultural tides: new norms about identity, bathroom usage, even font choices, and social etiquette on how to greet each other in public.
On the fourth front, technology driven by artificial intelligence is sweeping through the workforce with hurricane force, far faster than people can adapt. On the fifth front, young Americans of all races, faiths, and skin colors face pressure just to own a regular house — a tangible and psychological sanctuary that has long been the cornerstone of the American Dream.
My feeling is that today, millions of Americans wake up every day unsure of the social rules they should follow, the economic ladder they can rely on, or the cultural norms they can practice in this "home." They are psychologically homeless.
When Trump made the high wall at the U.S.-Mexico border the central theme of his first campaign, he instinctively chose a word with dual significance for millions of Americans. "Wall" refers both to a physical barrier blocking out uncontrollable immigrants — those accelerating the transformation of America into a minority-led nation — and to a barrier against the fast and massive changes, the cultural, digital, and generational storms reshaping daily life.
In my view, this is the deep background of Trump's national security strategy. He had no intention of reigniting the Cold War to defend and expand democratic territory, but instead wanted to ignite a civilization war over the essence of "American home" and "European home," centered on race and Judeo-Christian faith, and defining who are allies and who are enemies.
Economic columnist Noah Smith wrote this week on Substack that this is the key reason the "Make America Great Again" movement began to distance itself from Western Europe and move closer to Russia under Putin's leadership — because Trump's supporters believe that compared to European countries, Putin is a defender of white Christian nationalism and traditional values.
Smith wrote that historically, "in the American mind, Europe across the sea has always been an eternal homogeneous place where native white populations have always existed and will always exist." However, "throughout the 2010s, these Americans gradually realized that this sacred image of Europe was no longer accurate. With declining labor populations, European countries accepted millions of Muslim refugees and other immigrants from the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia — many of whom were far less assimilated than similar immigrant groups in the U.S. You'll hear people say things like 'Paris is no longer Paris.'"
Smith also said that the American right wing dominated by "Make America Great Again" "essentially doesn't care about democracy, alliances, NATO, or European integration projects. What they care about is 'Western civilization.' Unless Europe大规模驱逐穆斯林移民，并开始强调其基督教遗产，否则共和党不太可能出手帮助欧洲解决任何问题。"
In other words, when protecting a "Western civilization" based on race and faith becomes the top priority of American national security, the biggest threat becomes uncontrolled immigration into the U.S. and Western Europe, rather than Russia and ◻️◻️. As defense analyst Rick L. Dollar pointed out on the defense website War on the Rocks, "Protecting American culture, 'mental health,' and 'traditional families' has been defined as a core national security need."
That's why the Trump administration's national security strategy is not accidental, nor the work of a few low-level ideologues. In fact, it is like a Rosetta Stone, explaining the true driving force behind this government's domestic and foreign policies.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7583574324263617051/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.