【By Observer Net, Yuan Jiaqi】

This first half of the year, Germany's trade pattern has quietly changed. According to a report by British media Reuters on August 8th, preliminary data from the German Statistical Office shows that the gap between China and the United States in terms of Germany's largest trading partner has significantly narrowed. Affected by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the US, Germany's exports to the US have declined, bringing Sino-German trade close to surpassing German-US trade.

According to Reuters' calculation, the total bilateral trade between Germany and the US was approximately 125 billion euros (about RMB 1045.35 billion), while Sino-German trade reached 122.8 billion euros (RMB 1026.95 billion).

"Although the US temporarily retains the title of Germany's top trading partner, its advantage is now very slim," analyzed Vincent Stamer, an economist at Commerzbank.

The report mentioned that in 2024, the US ended China's eight-year dominance as Germany's largest trading partner. At that time, Germany sought to reduce its economic dependence on China, citing political differences and so-called "unfair practices," which facilitated this shift. China repeatedly strongly refuted claims such as "excess Chinese capacity."

However, when Trump returned to the White House in January this year and restarted the tariff war, trade tensions resurfaced. The July trade agreement framework between the US and Europe set most products exported to the US at a 15% tariff, directly impacting Germany's exports to the US.

Data shows that Germany's exports to the US fell by 3.9% in the first half of the year, dropping to 77.6 billion euros. Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, predicted, "the decline in Germany's exports to the US may continue or even worsen in the future."

Commerzbank further predicted that due to the new US tariffs, Germany's exports to the US could fall by 20% to 25% over the next two years.

"Following this trend, China is expected to become Germany's largest trading partner again this year," added Stamer.

A source said in July that German Chancellor Merkel is expected to visit China for the first time this year.

According to the report, the value of Germany's imports from China increased by 10.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 81.4 billion euros (RMB 680.7 billion); while Germany's exports to China decreased by 14.2%, falling to 41.4 billion euros (RMB 346.2 billion). Currently, Germany's trade deficit with China reached 40 billion euros (RMB 334.496 billion), second only to the level in 2022.

Regarding the sharp increase in imports, Stamer believes the core reason is that "German businesses and consumers obviously find it difficult to find alternatives to Chinese goods." Matthes also pointed out that the significant undervaluation of the yuan against the euro makes Chinese imported goods more price-competitive.

On July 3rd, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, held a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, stating that this year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War and the 80th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations. However, unilateralism, protectionism, and hegemonic bullying are posing serious challenges to the world. In the context of accelerating changes in the century, major countries should take the lead and assume responsibility, following the inevitable trend of multi-polarity and the era trend of economic globalization, firmly standing on the right side of history. As the world's second and third largest economies, China and Germany should strengthen exchanges and deepen cooperation, jointly doing three things.

In addition to solidifying the foundation of bilateral relations and practicing multilateralism, Wang Yi pointed out that China and Germany should improve the quality of bilateral cooperation.

He stated that China and Germany are each other's largest trading partners in their respective regions, and the bilateral trade volume has exceeded 200 billion US dollars for nine consecutive years. Trade with China supports one million jobs in Germany, and the Chinese market has attracted over 5,000 German companies to invest and operate in China. Strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation is a "must" for both China and Germany, the "ballast stone" of bilateral relations, and aligns with the new German government's focus on economic development. Both sides also had in-depth discussions on their respective economic and trade concerns and agreed to build a more stable, predictable, and trustworthy policy framework for practical cooperation. China's accelerated modernization will bring new development opportunities for German and European enterprises. China and Germany have broad prospects in cutting-edge fields such as green transition, artificial intelligence, and quantum technology. By tightening the interest bond and pursuing a shared destiny, they can effectively resist external risks and challenges.

Wang Yi emphasized that the more complex the international situation, the more major countries need to strengthen coordination. The more prominent the risk and challenges, the more countries need to enhance cooperation. In the current situation, China is willing to work with Germany to uphold the correct historical perspective, remember the original intention of establishing diplomatic relations, strengthen strategic communication, adhere to seeking common ground while reserving differences, deepen practical cooperation, and jointly be advocates of multilateralism, defenders of free trade, and contributors to open development, promoting the international order towards a more just and reasonable direction.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536413630045127187/

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