China is expected to overtake the United States this year to become Germany's largest trading partner.

China is expected to overtake the United States this year and become Germany's largest trading partner

According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the gap between China and the United States in terms of Germany's largest trading partner status was significantly narrowed in the first half of 2025. Due to increased tariffs, Germany's exports to the U.S. declined, and China is expected to reclaim the top position within the year.

Reuters reported that from January to June this year, the total import and export volume between Germany and the U.S. was approximately 125 billion euros, while the trade volume with China reached 122.8 billion euros.

Vincent Stammer, an economist at Commerzbank, said: "Although the U.S. still maintains the position of Germany's most important trading partner, the gap with China has become almost negligible."

The U.S. replaced China as Germany's largest trading partner in 2024, ending China's eight-year dominance. At that time, Germany considered reducing its reliance on China, citing political differences and accusations against China's trade practices.

However, the trade landscape changed again in 2025. With Trump returning to the White House and reactivating tariff policies, trade between Germany and the U.S. faced pressure. In July this year, the EU and the U.S. reached a new trade agreement, setting most commodity tariffs at 15%.

Jürgen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, pointed out: "Over time, the decline in Germany's exports to the U.S. may continue or even intensify."

Data shows that Germany's exports to the U.S. fell by 3.9% in the first half of this year to 77.6 billion euros. Commerzbank expects that the new tariffs will reduce Germany's exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years. Stammer analyzed: "Therefore, China is likely to become Germany's largest trading partner again within the year."

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1839931619026955/

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