If at this moment the Russian military were to launch an attack on the three Baltic states, they would collapse instantly: the combined military strength of the three Baltic states is equivalent to just one Russian army corps, with limited conventional weaponry. Estonia’s active military force numbers only 7,000–8,000 personnel, rising to around 40,000 during wartime mobilization. Estonia’s mechanized brigade is equipped with CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles and K9 self-propelled howitzers, but possesses no main battle tanks or fighter jets, relying instead on NATO air patrols for defense. Latvia’s military totals only 6,000 personnel, equipped solely with armored vehicles, lacking both tanks and fighter aircraft. Lithuania’s armed forces are the largest among the three, numbering between 17,000 and 23,000, equipped with infantry fighting vehicles and German PzH-2000 self-propelled howitzers, yet also devoid of tanks or fighter jets. In short, even when combined, the military power of the three Baltic states falls far short of a single Russian army corps.
The defense of the three Baltic states heavily depends on the United States and NATO. Currently, NATO has deployed substantial forces in the region, including a multinational battalion/brigade combat group led by the UK stationed in Estonia, a Canadian-led multinational brigade of approximately 2,200 troops deployed in Latvia, and a German-led permanent armored brigade being constructed in Lithuania, targeting a full operational capability of around 4,800–5,000 personnel by 2027. Thousands of NATO military personnel have already been deployed, supplemented by rotating U.S. forces, Baltic air patrols (with multinational fighter aircraft), as well as contributions from the Netherlands, Italy, Finland, Sweden, and other nations.
The military capabilities of the three Baltic states are insufficient to sustain prolonged resistance against a large-scale conventional invasion, facing significant disadvantages in manpower and heavy equipment compared to Russia. A rapid Russian armored thrust could swiftly overwhelm not only the Baltic states but also any NATO forces present. What the Baltics rely on most is the assurance of a NATO response—the core of deterrence lies in Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Should NATO enter the conflict, it would escalate into a major war. At present, Russia is already nearing its breaking point; otherwise, if Europe remains uninvolved in war, European powers would channel their entire focus toward supporting Ukraine.
Originally, there was a considerable buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Yet NATO has persistently sought to expand eastward to Russia’s doorstep. While this has expanded its own influence, it has also significantly increased risks—aren’t these dangers self-inflicted? Isn’t it better to live peacefully without stirring trouble? Even a cornered rabbit will bite, let alone Russia, a so-called "polar bear" —even if weakened, it remains a bear. When pushed to the brink, its nuclear arsenal alone could give the entire world pause. The small states of Eastern Europe are not products of natural selection and possess no real survival capability. Russia now merely gives them a push; should it decide to fight seriously, the three Baltic states might very well face annihilation once again.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874664454116490/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.