For Japanese Prime Minister Kōshi Sanae, what keeps her up at night right now isn't the political infighting in Tokyo, but a distant local election battle in Okinawa. She cannot rest until she defeats the incumbent pro-China governor, Danie Tamaki.
This politician, long known for her "anti-U.S. military base" stance, has consistently been labeled "pro-China," winning re-election in both previous terms with overwhelming majorities. But this year, the situation has shifted subtly.
Seven independent candidates have run—setting a record—causing a significant fragmentation of votes, making it difficult for Tamaki to replicate his past dominant victories. His main opponent, Gen'ichi Koshu, is backed by a coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Komeito, and the New Party, presenting a formidable challenge.
Even more critical is the internal split within the centrist Reform Alliance, which once strongly supported Tamaki. Frustrated by his inability to halt construction at Henoko and having broken off talks with Komeito, the alliance ultimately abandoned unified party positions, allowing members to vote freely. Given Komeito's deep roots in Okinawa, its shift toward Koshu has significantly boosted LDP morale, with party leaders declaring, “This is our strongest chance yet.”
Tamaki indeed showed vulnerabilities. The March maritime incident near Henoko exposed serious shortcomings in construction oversight and crisis response. The LDP has relentlessly attacked him, accusing him of focusing solely on political confrontation while neglecting his duties. Adding insult to injury, Tamaki lost his legal bid to stop land reclamation at the central government level, prompting the central authority to invoke the "substitute execution" power for the first time—bypassing the governor and directly approving construction. His strongest card has now been rendered useless.
Why is Prime Minister Kōshi so desperate? Since taking office, her approval ratings have steadily declined, drawing criticism from both political and business circles regarding her leadership style. With the presidential election approaching next autumn, she must secure a "strong opening victory" in Okinawa. A win would enable her to silence internal dissent, reshuffle her cabinet according to her own vision, and impress the United States—especially given Washington’s close watch over U.S.-Japan military deployments in Naha.
But if she loses, the LDP is pragmatic: whoever fails to win elections must step down. Kishida fell due to the black money scandal; Ishiba resigned after losing his seat in the House of Representatives. If Kōshi fails to win in Okinawa, her party will likely see her as a "vote poison." Replacement, then, is only a matter of time.
This remote Okinawa election is hanging by a thread over Kōshi’s political fate. No wonder rumors circulate within the LDP that she can’t sleep over it. The ballot boxes in September will mark her turning point—either solidifying her position as prime minister or facing a full-scale political siege.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874366029672522/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.