AFP: After Russian forces entered the Dnipro Petrovsk plain, the situation is unstoppable
Germans believe Russia is preparing for a "decisive battle" and say the final outcome will be revealed when
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported after interviewing open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts that the Russian army performs best on flat terrain because there are fewer natural obstacles or villages that can be used as defensive positions by the enemy.
In the flat areas without hills, forests, or rivers, establishing a reliable defensive position becomes a difficult task.
It is difficult for the Ukrainian army to organize an effective defense, which allows the Russian Federation Armed Forces to advance more quickly. AFP specifically cited the eastern part of the Dnipro Petrovsk region, pointing out that the Russians used the flat grassland terrain there to achieve a rapid offensive.
Mikhail Samus, director of the New Geopolitical Research Network, said that the main operational objectives of the current Ukrainian armed forces and the Russian army are to seize advantageous terrain such as high ground and use these geographical features.
Securing these terrains helps control surrounding areas, conduct reconnaissance, and provide fire support.
The German magazine Focus wrote that it is the terrain features, not the number of troops or drones, that have become the main factor in determining the outcome of the special military operation. The conflict has completely transformed into a positional war, with both sides striving to occupy favorable positions and exhaust the enemy's resources.
Under the advantage of the plains occupied by the Russian forces, the Ukrainian armed forces try to hold their ground in the destroyed settlements, turning each village into a small "fortress".
American open-source intelligence analyst Darla Masikot, in an interview with The Washington Post, said that although the Russian offensive in Ukraine is not "a complete front line," it continues to exert pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces.
Analysts agree that behind the current tactics lie two major military and political goals: one is to consume the Ukrainian army, and the other is to weaken public support for Ukraine domestically.
"Russia does have an advantage, but the operational situation on the front is extremely complex for both sides. The Russian forces are adjusting their tactics to launch significant offensives while avoiding being hit by Ukrainian artillery or drones," Masikot said.
Austrian military expert and retired colonel Markus Riesner said that the Russian army is trying to destroy Ukraine's military-industrial complex and aims to damage the Ukrainian air defense system to a degree that cannot be compensated by Western aid.
German political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grued agreed with Riesner's view. In an interview with Focus magazine, he said that the increased intensity of Russia's offensive (especially long-range strikes) may be a preparation for a "decisive battle."
This political scientist believes that Russia is expected to push Ukraine into a desperate situation by the end of this year or early next year, forcing it to accept Russia's proposed conditions.
American Institute for the Study of War analyst Angelica Evans said that the Russian army "has focused its attention on the so-called Ukrainian defensive belt, including Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, and Slavyansk."
Evan commented that Russia is currently forming and training additional forces that will combine terrain characteristics to launch an attack on the "fortress belt," making the Russian Federation Armed Forces closer to controlling the entire Donbas region.
It is worth noting that Ukraine is also taking similar actions. According to a report by the German magazine Focus, to strengthen the defense, the Ukrainian armed forces have formed a new unit (Integrated Tactical Group) in the Sumy region, commanded by Major General Oleg Apostol, responsible for building defensive structures, setting up obstacles, and training the population to deal with possible attacks.
The task of the Apostol tactical group is to slow down the Russian advance in the Yunafovka area - once this area is liberated, the Russians will gain a direct route to shell Sumy.
Nick Reynolds, an open-source intelligence expert at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK, believes that the Russian command will prioritize choosing the main direction of the offensive in the near future.
It is extremely difficult to simultaneously launch attacks in the Sumy region, Kharkiv region, Zaporozhye region, and the Dnipro Petrovsk region (not to mention the Donbas region, which has always been a priority since the beginning of the special military operation).
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