The United States launched a military operation in Venezuela to arrest President Maduro and bring him to the U.S. for trial. However, the true target of this operation may not be merely to overthrow the regime. For the Trump administration, it is a move to secure future dominance in the oil energy market, as well as a potential effort to regain control over the world's largest oil reserves supply node. Specifically, this may not be an operation aimed at oil prices, but rather a reconfiguration of the future energy market order.

Trump talked most about the word "oil"

U.S. financial media "Global Broadcasting Business News" pointed out that from the surface price, this military operation seems to have limited impact. Venezuela currently produces about 800,000 barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global crude supply. In the context of international crude oil market supply slightly exceeding demand, even if there is a dramatic change in the regime, the market generally expects no immediate oil supply disruption. Market analysts expect Brent crude prices to remain around $60 per barrel, with limited fluctuations.

However, low volatility in international oil prices does not mean long-term fluctuation risks do not exist. Both Bloomberg and Forbes news have pointed out Venezuela's real strategic value: the issue is never about how much oil it produces, but rather what kind of oil it produces.

Venezuela's main export crude is heavy sour grade, which requires coking units in refineries to process. Such equipment is expensive to invest in and difficult to convert, and once built, the raw material selection space is very limited. Therefore, when the supply prospects of this crude become uncertain, the market response will not first reflect in crude oil futures prices, but rather in the refining system itself. It is precisely at this stage that the U.S. action will begin to take effect. Simply put, the U.S. goal is to precisely limit the opponent's most difficult structural adjustment space.

The real changes in oil prices will appear in the refining margin and middle distillate markets. The expansion of refining margins and diesel cracking spreads, as well as the adjustment of some tankers' routes in the Caribbean and America, will reflect the market's ongoing assessment of "which part of the supply chain will face problems first."

Venezuela mainly produces heavy crude oil

The Trump administration has not concealed its long-term plans. Trump himself has clearly stated that he will mobilize large energy companies to invest billions of dollars to repair Venezuela's long-neglected oil infrastructure and intervene in government operations during the transition period. From a strategic perspective, this is a clear signal: Washington hopes to gain control before Venezuela's oil returns to the international market.

According to data published by the U.S. Energy Department, Venezuela has about 30.3 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's total, making it the country with the largest oil reserves. However, resources themselves do not equate to production capacity. Most of Venezuela's oil pipelines have not undergone systematic updates for nearly 50 years. To return to past peak production levels, infrastructure investment would require as much as 58 billion dollars. Even if political risks are temporarily reduced, it would still take several years and extremely high costs to stabilize the flow of these oils to the market.

Therefore, another practical issue has begun to emerge. Although the Trump administration has taken an active attitude, whether major U.S. energy companies are willing to bear such a scale of risk in the short term remains uncertain, because any multinational oil company would not lightly make a decision to invest huge capital given the high uncertainty of the domestic situation in Venezuela.

Currently, ExxonMobil and Chevron have taken a cautious attitude towards investment issues. Chevron, which has long operated in Venezuela, stated that it is conducting limited operations in Venezuela under special permits issued by the U.S. government. This attitude does not reflect refusal, but rather观望 (watching and waiting).

The key issue is whether the U.S. oil giants are willing to invest heavily

That is why the core of the current U.S. strategy is not to require capital to enter immediately, but to first establish a political and institutional framework to ensure that when investment conditions mature and capital is willing to enter, the initiative is firmly in the hands of the United States. In other words, the U.S. is not talking about immediately increasing production and lowering oil prices, but rather securing the choice rights when Venezuela's oil supply returns to the market in the future.



Original source: toutiao.com/article/7592114610006671924/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.