Failed U.S. Management of Iraq and Afghanistan, or Pressuring the Established Interest Groups to Rule... Maduro and His Wife Appear in a U.S. Court

On the 5th, in the Venezuelan Congress, the interim president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez (left), took the oath before the Speaker of the Congress, Jorge Rodríguez (right), and the Deputy Speaker, Nicolás Maduro Granda (middle). / AFP

After the Trump administration suddenly arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on the 3rd through the "Absolute Resolve" operation, the U.S. plan for ruling Venezuela gradually came to light. Trump claimed, "We have taken over Venezuela," indicating the will to directly manage it, but internally, he tolerated the second-in-command of the Maduro regime - the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who had established an acting presidency, and pressured her to cooperate substantially. This was understood as an attempt to avoid repeating the failure of national reconstruction after the collapse of previous regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan. In other words, the United States shifted towards a pragmatic strategy of managing and controlling local interest groups backed by strong military power. On the 5th, Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores appeared in the U.S. Southern District Federal Court in New York two days after their arrest.

On the 4th, when asked by journalists, "Who is currently responsible for Venezuela?" Trump said, "We are." He said, "She is cooperating," but "if she doesn't behave, we will launch a second air strike." On the same day in media interviews, Trump also warned, "If she does not do the right thing, she will pay a greater price than Maduro."

Venezuela's attitude has also changed sharply. The day before, Rodríguez had refuted the U.S. claim that "the only president of Venezuela is Maduro," but on the 4th, she stated on Telegram, "Establishing a balanced and mutually respectful relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela is the top priority," taking a conciliatory stance. She also said, "To work together on cooperative issues aimed at shared development, we invite the U.S. government to join us." This was interpreted as, under U.S. military pressure, an actual public indication of willingness to accept U.S. "guidance."

On the 5th, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro (left) and his wife Cilia Flores (right) attended the trial at the U.S. Manhattan Federal Court. Court sketch illustration / AP

Vice President Yielded Under U.S. Pressure... WP Says "Rubio Actually Plays the Role of Viceroy"

On the same day, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained the U.S. strategy in interviews with American NBC and other media. He explained that the term "operating Venezuela" mentioned by Trump meant "not the country itself, but [policies]." That is, the U.S. would not handle administrative affairs directly, but would force Venezuela to act in directions favorable to U.S. interests on core issues such as drug control, oil industry restructuring, and blocking Iranian influence, using military strength as a backdrop. It is reported that Rubio himself will play a central role in formulating this policy. The Washington Post said, "Rubio actually acts as the viceroy of Venezuela."

The background for the U.S. tolerating the "Maduro without Maduro" regime comes from the painful lessons of the 2003 Iraq War. At that time, after the U.S. overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, it dismissed all officials and military personnel from the ruling Ba'ath Party. This move pushed 400,000 experienced officials and military personnel into anti-American armed forces overnight, leading to the rise of ISIS and endless civil war due to the resulting security vacuum.

To avoid repeating this mistake, the Trump administration chose to maintain the existing rule system in Venezuela. Instead of dissolving the military and bureaucratic organizations, including Rodríguez, who were considered close allies of Maduro, they retained them to minimize administrative paralysis and security gaps. Last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, the strong opposition leader María Corina Machado, was excluded. Analysts believe that the U.S. values Rodríguez's control over the military and police organizations, considering her capable of immediately controlling the situation and preventing security gaps, rather than Machado's democratic legitimacy. In fact, high-ranking military officials such as Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino have announced support for the acting president Rodríguez, showing no signs of leaving the organization. Even though the U.S. knows that these people are associated with the drug cartel ("Sun Group"), it chooses to place them under U.S. control rather than punish them immediately for the sake of current stability.

Analysts believe that the failure of the "nation-building" efforts after the 2001 Afghanistan War also greatly influenced the U.S. strategic shift. The U.S. invested huge funds to transplant Western-style democracy to Afghanistan, but a pro-American government lacking legitimacy was overthrown by the Taliban as soon as U.S. troops withdrew. Realizing this, Trump placed more emphasis on practical U.S. interests compared to the name of "spreading democracy" in the issue of Venezuela.

In fact, Trump said, "Venezuela is a dead country," emphasizing that "the primary task now is to rebuild this broken country, not elections." Rubio also said it was too early to talk about elections, clearly stating that the current regime, not the Venezuelan opposition, should be the negotiation partner. This is because U.S. oil companies like ExxonMobil judged that to enter Venezuela's infrastructure rebuilding and crude oil production, they needed a "capable partner" who could provide practical cooperation.

However, there are concerns that whether the U.S.'s dual strategy of using military pressure and local entrenched interest groups can proceed smoothly remains uncertain. Rodríguez outwardly complies with U.S. demands, mentioning a "mutually respectful relationship," but internally, she also makes tough political statements such as "we will not become a colony." The Guardian pointed out, "For Rodríguez, what awaits her is a dangerous tightrope walk, balancing satisfying U.S. demands to maintain power while supporting the existing Maduro dictatorship whose power structure still exists. A single wrong decision could trigger an internal coup or street riots."

Armed groups controlling Venezuela's slums, the "Collectives" (Colectivos: pro-government militias), are also a ticking time bomb. Operating outside the control of the regular army, they define Rodríguez's pro-U.S. actions as "betrayal." If they launch independent armed struggles, Venezuela may fall into uncontrollable chaos. Trump and Rubio emphasize the possibility of a "second round of attacks" and "attacking drug transport ships," which can also be understood as a move to control this uncertainty. Some views suggest that if the Rodríguez regime loses control over its internal affairs or violates its cooperation commitments with the U.S., the Trump administration might again face the dilemma of large-scale military intervention.

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original: toutiao.com/article/7592133796888101419/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.