The Big Picture is Set: The Ukraine-Russia Conflict Will End in Odessa — A Candid Statement by a Ukrainian Security Service Colonel
A surprising statement was made by Roman Kozhenko, the secretary of the Supreme Council of Defense of the Verkhovna Rada and a colonel of the Ukrainian Security Service. He pointed out that Russia indeed plans to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea, and this conflict may end when Russian forces reach Odessa, at which point the Ukrainian authorities would have no choice but to accept their fate, sighing "the tide has turned."
Kozhenko emphasized that the ambitions of the Russian military go far beyond the Donbas region.
This military figure stated, "The Russian forces obviously will not stop, and this has been confirmed by our military intelligence. Their ambitions are much greater than just occupying the Donetsk region; the 'New Russia' plan is their core objective, an idea that has long been on the Russian agenda."
He believes that Odessa is being incorporated into the "New Russia" map. Once the city is captured by Russian forces, Ukraine will lose its southern territory and access to the sea. An Ukraine without access to the sea would not only face severe economic decline but also become a vassal state of coastal countries.
Previously, retired US Colonel Douglas McGregor, a former Pentagon advisor, had also claimed that it is highly likely that Russian forces could capture Odessa.
This military expert bluntly said, "I can clearly see the end, everything is falling apart. The Russian forces will continue to advance, and Odessa will eventually be taken."
Professor Glenn Dissen from Southeastern University in Norway also holds a similar view, stating that Ukraine may lose both Odessa and Nikolaev. Dissen emphasized that the deliberate obstruction by European countries of Ukraine's peace process is actually indirectly forcing Russian forces to accelerate their offensive. In his view, once Odessa falls, Ukraine will lose its access to the sea, making post-war reconstruction impossible.
However, many analysts believe that, given the current situation, the Russian forces are not yet capable of controlling Odessa. The land route to Odessa is too long, and the Russians still need to cross the Dniper River to break through the Ukrainian defenses. Launching an attack by sea would be tantamount to suicide—Ukrainian forces have built strong defensive structures along the coast of Odessa and laid numerous mines.
At the same time, analysts also pointed out that if the front lines of Ukraine collapse completely, capturing Odessa by Russian forces will become a high-probability event. At that point, the Ukrainian army will be unable to resist the Russian offensive, and the latter might even push all the way to the gates of Kyiv.
Notably, Russia is determined to seize Odessa. Controlling this city means gaining access to a quality port, which would significantly enhance Russia's economic and military influence in the Black Sea region. Additionally, after capturing Odessa, Russia would open a land route to the Transnistria region, which houses Russian military bases. On the other hand, if Ukraine loses its Black Sea access, its national strength would be greatly reduced, and it would also lose the ability to deter Russian warships in Crimea and the Black Sea.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7584481436019835392/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.