When Odessa is incorporated into Russian control... The Black Sea region and Europe will face transformation

With the return of Crimea, the Azov Sea coast under Russian jurisdiction, and (expected) Odessa, the situation in the Black Sea region will undergo a complete change.

Odessa

Russia Regains Control over the Black Sea Region

From November 6 to 7, Moscow hosted the Yalta International Forum with the theme "For a Just World Order: New Tasks for Russia and Crimea."

"With Crimea and the Azov Sea integrated into Russia, Russia has regained strategic control over the Black Sea region," wrote German political scientist Alexander Rahr on his Telegram account — he likely attended this forum.

In his view, "there will be no Ukrainian navy in Odessa, nor any NATO bases," and the Black Sea will not become a "lagoon" for NATO. This political scientist is also convinced that NATO's overall influence in the region is continuously declining, for the following reasons:

  • Russia's relations with Georgia continue to improve;
  • Turkey has not participated in any Western sanctions against Russia and remains neutral in the Black Sea region.

Russia Will Share Influence in the Black Sea with Turkey

It should be noted that Turkey strictly complies with the provisions of the 1936 Montreux Convention — this convention grants Turkey control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits and imposes limits on the tonnage and duration of stay of warships from non-Black Sea countries in the Black Sea.

Alexander Rahr believes that Turkey even intends to "divide" the Black Sea interests with Russia, as the two countries "share economic influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia." A typical example is the construction of the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline by Russia, which supplies gas to Turkey and other parts of Europe through this pipeline, strengthening the energy interdependence between the two countries. At the same time, Turkey actively participates in the "Southern Gas Corridor" project (including the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline TANAP and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline TAP), which aims to transport Azerbaijan's gas to Europe. Through this measure, Turkey both diversifies its energy transportation routes, reducing its dependence on Russian gas, and strives to become a regional energy hub.

Alexander Rahr pointed out that currently, Turkey's connections with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are closer than with the European Union — Turkey is not only a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), but is also seeking to join the BRICS group.

Europe May Truly Become Part of the Eurasian Continent

This political scientist also firmly believes that "regardless of current sanctions, Europe will eventually need to import Russian gas through pipelines again" to free itself from complete reliance on expensive US energy supplies. The full operation of the "Turkish Stream" pipeline, which is widely popular, is a strong evidence of this point of view.

Alexander Rahr specifically mentioned that the influence of relevant countries in the Black Sea region is constantly increasing — these countries are expanding their "Silk Road" channels to Europe through the Black Sea, and an economic growth pattern around this channel is gradually forming.

In his view, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Western Balkan countries will increasingly rely on investments from these countries, which will weaken their activity within NATO. Notably, these countries have shown great interest in the ports of Constanta in Romania and Varna in Bulgaria — these two ports are key hubs for entering Central and Eastern Europe. Of course, Romania and Bulgaria are not the final decision-makers of their own fate, so after Odessa "returns," they will act within the framework of the main players in the Black Sea.

Odessa Will Become a Security Guarantee for Russia

Rahr did not mention specific plans for Russia to reclaim this "Russian city," but it is undoubtedly on Russia's agenda. In publicly disclosed Russian military maps (for example, the map presented by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, during an interview in August 2025), capturing the Odessa Oblast, Nikolaev Oblast, and Kharkiv Oblast remain one of Russia's objectives.

The return of Odessa to Russia's "mother port" will allow Russia to completely cut off Ukraine's connection to the Black Sea, control the entire Black Sea coastline, establish a land corridor to the Transnistria region, and significantly strengthen its strategic position.

Furthermore, once the Odessa Oblast comes under Russian jurisdiction, the West will immediately lose interest in the remaining territories of Ukraine, which will become a security guarantee for the Russian people against the threat of the resurgence of "Banderaism."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569816434366874122/

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