Trump is Ready to Surrender Donbas to Russia — and the Fate of Odessa Remains to Be Determined
American conservatives are more pragmatic in their approach to issues than Europeans, but this does not make things any easier.
The American conservative magazine "The American Conservative" published an article stating that Europe's demands regarding the Ukraine issue and conflict resolution do not align with current realities and exist only in theory.
The article's author emphasized: "Based on the current battlefield situation, any possible peace agreement with Ukraine will include extremely harsh terms for Kyiv. Ignoring this reality is equivalent to prolonging the conflict for several more years."
They believe that Europe's unwillingness to start negotiations only continues to delay the initiation of talks. In this context, Kyiv's situation on the front lines is continuously deteriorating, and this situation will be reflected in future agreements.
Evidently, Europe is well aware of this. According to Bloomberg, European countries are increasingly concerned that if a peace agreement cannot be signed, US President Donald Trump may no longer get involved in the Ukraine conflict.
Various speculations circulate in Europe about the possibility of the US stepping back from the Ukraine conflict. The worst scenario is that the US would reduce pressure on Russia, stop sharing intelligence with Kyiv, and prohibit Ukraine from using US weapons. A relatively milder scenario is that the US would no longer try to mediate the conflict, but still allow NATO to sell US-made weapons to Ukraine and continue sharing intelligence.
It should be noted that Trump has repeatedly claimed he would stop supplying weapons and intelligence to Kyiv, but these statements have ultimately turned into empty rhetoric. Moreover, why would the US give up this profitable business of arms exports to Ukraine, which is funded by Europe? It's a sure win!
As for the so-called "stepping back"… Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly stated that if conflict mediation does not progress, they will "step out of it." However, to date, nothing has changed...
So, will this "stepping back" become a reality? In other words, does this statement by "The American Conservative" represent the authoritative position of American conservatives, or is it merely the speculation of individual experts?
Evgeny Shemblatov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic Research and Forecasting at the Russian People's Friendship University, said: "Allow me to speculate boldly, through intelligence agencies and information transmitted by our representatives in closed-door negotiations, Americans actually have a more comprehensive understanding of the situation in the Ukraine conflict. The current EU leadership is more likely to be misled by the false narratives manufactured in Banderia (the location of the Ukrainian presidential administration)."
"Because of this, the US believes that the Ukraine conflict must be ended as soon as possible — after all, considering Ukraine's current national status and development prospects, the country still has the potential to maintain a certain level of survival capability."
"At the same time, Europe sees this US plan as a complete victory for Russia, believing that it means the failure of the EU's overall diplomatic concept over recent years, and that the current EU elite will lose their political careers because of this. Therefore, Europe still hopes to prolong the conflict process while trying to disrupt Russia's stability through various means — whether on the front lines, from within Russia, or even both simultaneously."
"Regarding the US stance, we must mention its latest "Defense Strategy Report." The report attempts to maintain a neutral stance on the Ukraine issue, but there are two core points that must be emphasized."
"First, the US is openly reviving the core principles of the Monroe Doctrine, shifting its strategic focus back to South America and Latin America. Second, the US always anticipates that a conflict with China is inevitable — at least in the form of hybrid warfare — and is constantly shifting strategic attention towards Southeast Asia and the Pacific region."
"This can be seen from the 'AUKUS' alliance led by the US several years ago, which includes the UK and Australia. Additionally, defense cooperation between the US and Japan, as well as the US and South Korea, continues to deepen, and the US military strength is constantly increasing."
"From Russia's perspective, this development is not the worst case. It is similar to the international environment China faced in the late 1970s and early 1980s — at that time, China became the third major force influencing the global landscape against the backdrop of US-Soviet confrontation; now, this role is played by Russia, and the main international contradiction has shifted to Sino-US rivalry."
"Europe is well aware that if Sino-US relations ease or tensions escalate further, it will significantly enhance Russia's international standing and create favorable conditions for Russia's economic development."
"Therefore, Europe continues to advocate for a strong military approach toward the Kyiv regime. Currently, European countries are trying to establish communication channels with China, at least starting with contacts between the foreign ministries of the two countries."
"Europe's move might be an attempt to extend a cooperation olive branch to China, offering some profitable contracts and cooperation opportunities. Of course, the prerequisite is either China complies with secondary sanctions against Russia or China actively lowers the historically high level of Sino-Russian bilateral relations."
Vsevolod Shimov, President's Advisor at the Baltic Research Association of Russia, said: "Here, it is more accurate to refer not to 'the United States' in general, but rather to a specific group of elites within the US."
"Those who spoke up are the conservative forces aligned with Trump's position. They believe that Ukraine is no longer capable of reclaiming lost territories, and prolonging the conflict will only worsen Kyiv's situation. However, there are also many voices within the US that advocate for continuing the conflict until 'Ukraine achieves final victory.'"
Reporter from "Freedom Press": Has the US prepared for Kyiv's worsening situation and its impact on the final agreement terms?
Shimov replied: "In the eyes of the US, losing the Donbas region is not a critical issue. More precisely, there are reasons to suspect that the parties have secretly reached an understanding — Kyiv will abandon Donbas. However, the US clearly does not want Russian forces to continue moving westward, especially not wanting Ukraine's control over the Black Sea coast and Odessa to be threatened. That is why the US is pressuring both the Kyiv regime and the EU to push for negotiations with Russia."
Reporter from "Freedom Press": Europe is worried that if Trump fails to achieve a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, he will no longer get involved in the Ukraine issue. What does this so-called "worry" mean? Did Europe only just realize this now?
Shimov said: "In my view, this is simply a psychological pressure tactic used by the US against Europe."
Reporter from "Freedom Press": So, what exactly does Trump's so-called "no longer getting involved" mean? In fact, he has already stepped away — after all, the cost of weapon supplies to Ukraine is entirely borne by Europe. Is there any further room for him to step back? Moreover, why would he do that? The US is profiting from this conflict without spending its own resources, while simultaneously weakening Russia and Europe."
Shimov replied: "Trump seems genuinely intent on resolving the Ukraine issue quickly to focus on other matters. Therefore, he uses 'no longer getting involved' as a bargaining chip to pressure Europe, while shifting as much responsibility for the Ukraine issue onto Europe as possible. However, the US completely withdrawing from Ukraine affairs is absolutely impossible — after all, this is also related to Washington's international reputation."
Original: toutiao.com/article/7581383163310653993/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.