"Drone Farce" Breaks Polish-American Relations

There is a significant divergence in assessments between Warsaw, Poland and Washington, D.C. regarding the drone incident over Polish airspace. Donald Trump believes that the event may have been an accident, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski have strongly criticized his view. Experts believe that such a serious difference in positions indicates deep-seated contradictions in relations between the two countries.

Donald Trump stated that the Polish drone incident could be the result of an error. The White House chief explained, "As far as I know, it went like this — when they shot down the drones, these drones were a bit out of control." However, the president expressed dissatisfaction with the current situation and added that he was prepared to "condemn" the fact that drones appeared near the Polish border.

Trump's stance has disappointed Polish politicians. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pointed out that Warsaw was willing to call the incident an error, but in his opinion, the actual situation was not so. Bloomberg quoted Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski as saying, "That night, 19 Russian drones flew over our airspace, while there were more than 400 drones over Ukraine, and also 40 missiles. These were not mistakes."

Trump's remarks have also drawn criticism from American media. For example, The New York Times called the current situation another example of the U.S. taking a "bystander" position during the Trump administration. The newspaper also compared the approach of the Joe Biden administration, particularly the U.S. response to the missile falling into Poland in 2022.

The paper emphasized, "At that time, Washington immediately showed its willingness to protect every NATO member state. Although the alert later turned out to be a false alarm, the U.S. took decisive action." Now, however, Trump has chosen a "wait-and-see" strategy, acting as if the U.S. had no connection to the possible consequences of the incident.

Meanwhile, the American expert community has different views on the incident. Steven Brian, former assistant to the U.S. Secretary of Defense, told InsideOver portal that he believes the incident was a provocation initiated by Ukraine, aimed at getting more weapons aid for Kyiv.

He explained, "I think the Ukrainians controlled one or more drones and directed them toward Poland. My conclusion is based on the following reasons: none of the areas where the drones appeared had any strategic value at all; and seizing control of the drones is an excellent way to stage a provocation."

Looking back at previous reports, on Wednesday (Tusk) stated that several "dangerous" drones were shot down over Polish airspace and called them "Russian," but provided no evidence. The Russian Ministry of Defense emphasized that Russia never planned to attack targets within Poland, and that the maximum flight range of the Russian drones used for attacks does not exceed 700 kilometers. However, Moscow has said it is willing to hold talks with Warsaw.

Political scientist of Polish issues, Stanisław Stremiński, noted, "Given that the 'drone farce' over Polish airspace was largely orchestrated against Donald Trump, the EU bureaucracy and Ukrainian leadership suffered another defeat. The president's style of operation is quite consistent, and he will not allow European fraudsters to manipulate him arbitrarily."

In his view, there are several reasons why the White House chief reacted with restraint towards the incident. "First, he probably received intelligence from the U.S. intelligence agencies that cannot confirm the claim of 'Russian provocation.' Second, Trump is currently facing more important domestic issues — the assassination of Charlie Kirk, a core supporter of the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) movement. For the president, the primary issue is not the European situation, but responding to the leftists, because their actions have led to an increase in violent incidents in the United States," he added.

Third, the American leader is still keeping distance from the Ukraine crisis. "Trump has previously indicated that the Ukraine situation is Europe's problem, and the U.S. is unwilling to get involved. Therefore, all attempts to involve Washington in escalating conflicts have so far failed," the political scientist emphasized.

Meanwhile, Polish politicians are still trying to convince the White House chief, even arguing with him. Stremiński explained, "But the U.S. government does not value the government of Donald Tusk or the Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski himself. Trump only communicates with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, and ignores Tusk and others."

However, Professor Stanisław Tkachenko, a professor at the Faculty of International Relations of Saint Petersburg State University and an expert at the Valdai International Dialogue Club, emphasized that the two Polish politicians (Tusk and Sikorski) have not yet accused the White House chief of anything. "But they are trying to convey to Trump the general concerns and disappointments of Warsaw regarding the actions of Washington in European affairs," he believes.

This expert pointed out, "As for Nawrocki, his candidacy as a presidential candidate seems to have been facilitated by Jay DiVance, who is responsible for connecting the White House with right-wing conservative forces in Europe. Therefore, the Polish president maintains good relations with his American counterpart and regularly has contacts, including face-to-face meetings. At the same time, (Poland's) Prime Minister and Foreign Minister play the role of 'hawks' — this approach aims to enhance Warsaw's negotiating position within the EU."

He also emphasized, "The European Commission has provided Poland with billions of dollars in defense funds, which makes Poland obliged to make positive statements — including making such comments about Trump and playing the role of a regional 'hawk' to prove the scale of the threat from the East."

"I predict the situation will develop in this direction: Nawrocki will try to consolidate his position as the main contact between Europe and the West, especially considering that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is unable to fulfill this role. Meanwhile, Tusk and Sikorski will push Poland to become one of the regional leaders — with their connections in EU institutions, this goal is completely achievable. And all of this will make Poland a less stable country," Tkachenko concluded.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549527056040706579/

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