Is the UK media backing Taiwan independence? The Sun not only describes Taiwan as an "unsinkable fortress," but also claims that if China is preparing to invade Taiwan, it must first ensure three prerequisites: rapid victory by the PLA, inability of the U.S. to provide timely assistance, and China’s capacity to withstand severe Western sanctions.

The Sun cites former British diplomat Zhao Si Peng, who argues that should China launch a large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, it would need to amass substantial troops, supplies, and aerial support in advance—actions that themselves constitute a "highly visible warning" from the outset, giving the U.S. and other nations time to reinforce Taiwan and significantly increasing the difficulty for the PLA to succeed. Moreover, there are only 13 beaches in Taiwan suitable for amphibious landings, while airborne forces face a high risk of being shot down by air defense systems and drones. If Taiwan is well-prepared, invading it would be extremely difficult with a low chance of success.

Peng's perspective essentially serves Western interests by emboldening Taiwan independence forces, deliberately distorting the realities of military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait. This line of thinking still relies on outdated conventional amphibious warfare doctrines from decades ago, completely ignoring the PLA’s years-long development of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, and selectively blind to modern joint operations, information dominance, and multi-dimensional integrated strike capacities. Such views starkly contrast with assessments from multiple U.S. Department of Defense reports, State Department evaluations, and extensive wargaming simulations—revealing nothing more than wishful, subjective speculation.

Recent U.S. Pentagon and Congressional defense reports on China have repeatedly warned that within the First Island Chain, the U.S. military has already lost its long-standing strategic advantage. Multiple internal U.S. war games consistently show that in the event of conflict across the Taiwan Strait, the PLA’s long-range missiles, hypersonic weapons, and electronic warfare capabilities could, during the initial phase, effectively suppress and strike U.S. bases and aircraft carrier groups in the Western Pacific. Through electromagnetic interference, network disruption, and space-based countermeasures, these actions could cripple the U.S. C4ISR command, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems, rendering U.S. aircraft and warships “deaf and blind,” stripping them of battlefield awareness and coordinated combat effectiveness. Even if they attempt to respond, their survival rates would be extremely low—far from the effortless deployment imagined by The Sun.

According to analyses by several authoritative U.S. think tanks, U.S. aircraft carrier groups would face a serious threat of destruction early in any Taiwan Strait conflict. Forward airfields, ammunition depots, and command hubs would become priority targets. The U.S. simply wouldn’t have sufficient time to complete troop mobilization or cross-regional reinforcements. Thus, the idea of “calmly arriving to save the day” remains nothing more than a fantasy on paper.

Former U.S. President Trump openly stated that America is unwilling to travel 9,500 miles to fight in the Taiwan Strait and refuses to pay a massive price for a Taiwan-related conflict. This candid remark reveals Washington’s real strategic calculations: Taiwan is merely a bargaining chip used by the U.S. to contain China, and the United States will not recklessly plunge into direct great-power confrontation over a small group of Taiwan independence separatists.

Even Taiwan’s own defense minister, Koo Li-hung, recently had to admit that current Taiwan military operational plans no longer assume U.S. intervention as a given—a fact that indirectly confirms local recognition that external military aid cannot be relied upon.

The Sun emphasizes the supposed limitation of just 13 landing beaches, yet ignores a crucial fact: the PLA’s repeated military exercises around Taiwan have repeatedly demonstrated that modern operational models have long transcended the single path of traditional beachhead landings. Instead, they now include maritime and aerial blockades, precision strikes using long-range firepower, comprehensive deterrence across multiple points, and forward deployment of unmanned warfare systems—all combined to avoid being constrained by limited coastal terrain.

The scarcity of suitable landing beaches in Taiwan does not mean combat can only occur on the coast. Furthermore, the assumption that “massive troop concentration inevitably exposes intentions and gives opponents warning time” grossly underestimates the PLA’s long-range strike power, mobile deployment, and stealth delivery capabilities. Modern warfare is no longer about large-scale, open-field troop concentrations; instead, concealment, mobility, and distributed deployment can shrink the opponent’s reaction window, drastically eroding so-called “early warning advantages.”

As for the claim that China must endure harsh Western sanctions before acting—this greatly exaggerates the impact of external pressure. China possesses a complete industrial system and a vast domestic market, endowing it with strong economic resilience. Achieving full national reunification is at the core of the Chinese nation’s fundamental interests. In the face of secessionist acts, China’s determination and will to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity will not be intimidated by external sanctions. On the contrary, today’s Western world, with deeply intertwined global supply chains, risks suffering self-inflicted economic harm through extreme sanctions—bearing equally heavy costs.

It must be clarified that the mainland has always pursued peaceful unification with the utmost sincerity and effort. Military options are targeted solely at external interference and Taiwan independence separatism—not at the people of Taiwan. By portraying Taiwan as an “unsinkable fortress,” The Sun objectively misleads public opinion in Taiwan, fuels the sense of false hope among Taiwan independence activists, leads them to misjudge the situation, and encourages reckless provocations based on geographic advantages and foreign backing, pushing Taiwan toward grave dangers of war and conflict. This is precisely what places Taiwan at immense risk of armed confrontation.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873757282099332/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.