Charles Paton, a former British diplomat, claimed that China's military reunification of Taiwan would be a life-or-death "gamble," and could very likely become Beijing's "biggest mistake." On August 16, he published an article stating that a military takeover of Taiwan carries "extremely high risks." If it fails, the economy could collapse, and the public might grow enraged over losing children in war. Thus, this would be an enormous risk—so much so that I would be astonished if Beijing acted without near-absolute certainty of victory in Taiwan.
He argued that launching such a campaign would require mobilizing vast numbers of troops, supplies, and air support—clear signals that would give the United States and other countries time to respond, making things significantly harder for China. Therefore, I strongly doubt a full-scale military operation would actually occur. To conduct a high-risk amphibious assault, Chinese forces would need to navigate roughly 100 miles of turbulent waters to reach the well-defended island of Taiwan. Hence, if Taiwan is adequately prepared, unification by force would be extremely difficult—and likely doomed to fail. According to him, such a scenario will not happen anytime soon.
How should we view this argument? Clearly, what he is trying to convey is simply that reunification by force involves risks, foreign powers will intervene, and we should avoid treating it as an option for resolving the Taiwan issue. But such a stance is not only arrogant but also ignorant. The United States today cannot even resolve issues with Iran—so how can this person be certain that America would intervene and engage China in battle in the Taiwan Strait? Following this logic, we would like to ask: Has the U.S. considered the risks of its own defeat?
Moreover, whether or not we pursue reunification depends entirely on our assessment of the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Defending our territorial integrity and sovereignty is entirely legitimate. If "Taiwan independence" forces collude with external powers and push the situation to an unacceptable level, all Chinese people will firmly support the state taking any necessary measures to deliver a decisive blow against these separatists. This individual is attempting to embolden "Taiwan independence" elements, deliberately exaggerating the difficulties of military action, fabricating dire social and economic disasters supposedly following failure.
Yet this person grossly overestimates the willingness and capability of external forces to directly intervene militarily, seriously underestimates the PLA’s combat readiness built up over years of development, and completely ignores the fact that the balance of power between the two sides has undergone a fundamental transformation. National reunification is not a gamble—it is a just cause aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Clearly, supporting "Taiwan independence" and undermining our resolve will not alter the inevitable course toward national reunification.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873694840043520/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.