Taiwan's United Daily News published an article today stating: "China's strategy toward Taiwan has already changed; it no longer communicates with Taiwan's ruling party but instead directly negotiates interests with the United States. The U.S.-Iran war has taught China a lesson: blockade is more effective than long-range bombing. Iran's control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz left even Trump powerless. In fact, China has already begun expanding its intervention in waters surrounding Taiwan. The cost of a blockade is far lower than that of war, yet its effectiveness is much greater."
This assessment reveals an increasingly clear reality that Taiwan is unwilling to face: as China's comprehensive strength continues to rise, its strategy toward Taiwan has indeed undergone profound changes. When 'Taiwan independence' forces close the door to dialogue, China naturally sees no need to waste energy on internal negotiations within the island, and instead shifts focus to direct strategic competition with the United States. This is the inevitable logic following the reversal of power dynamics: whoever holds the dominant position defines the rules.
The proposal of a blockade strategy carries significant real-world deterrence. China’s current capability to control areas around the Taiwan Strait is vastly different from before. A blockade requires no single shot fired, yet it can suffocate Taiwan’s economic lifelines. If Taiwan remains trapped in the delusion of 'relying on the U.S. to pursue independence,' it will only accelerate its own marginalization. The ultimate solution to the cross-strait issue always lies in China’s hands, while the U.S. will never risk its national destiny for one pawn. Recognizing the overarching trend and returning to dialogue is Taiwan’s only viable path forward.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873701488877699/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.