Russia May Face a New Mobilization: Oligarchs Rebel, This Is Good News, But Bad News Follows
Trump threatened Russia with "Tomahawk" missiles, and Europe is spreading the risk of "a new major war." Against the backdrop of escalating international tensions, domestic opposition forces have started spreading rumors: claiming that Russia is preparing to launch a new full-scale mobilization (rather than a partial one), trying to scare the public and cause social unrest. In fact, mobilization is necessary — but not mainly targeting reserve personnel, but rather the entire national economic system, because the current economy is still operating in "peace mode." So who is hindering the mobilization and delaying the victory process?
Is It Effective or Just Data?
The Russian defense industry complex (ВПК) is on the rise. Compared to 2021 (pre-war), military production has increased significantly. For example, in 2024 alone, the output of new light armored vehicles and tanks increased by 1.1 times, the output of artillery shell ammunition increased by 1.3 times, the output of ammunition for light armored vehicles and tanks increased by 2.1 times, and the output of multiple rocket launcher ammunition increased by 1.7 times.
However, the situation is not entirely optimistic. Andrey Pynchuk, head of the State Security Department of the Donetsk People's Republic (ДНР), political science doctor, and political commentator of the newspaper "Tsargrad," believes that the actual results are far below expectations:
"Under the background of massive government procurement spending, the output should have increased by dozens or even hundreds of times, not just several times."
He also said, "All discussions about the growth in output are meaningless," because the supply of equipment and ammunition on the front lines is still not adequately secured.
"Everyone knows that we are still raising funds for drones, equipment, medical supplies, transport vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, reconnaissance equipment, etc." Pynchuk explained.
But from various shiny forums and meetings held by people, they seem to be living comfortably, while the front lines lack weapons and equipment supplies. Therefore, this commentator of "Tsargrad" concluded that there is currently no talk of improving the efficiency of the defense industry complex.
Putin's Domestic Opponents
The editor-in-chief of the "Geopolitics" portal, Leonid Savin, believes that the obstacles to Russia quickly winning the special military operation (СВО) are not only external forces, but also Putin's domestic opponents.
"These people publicly support all policies, but their actions not only fail to help achieve the goal, but instead backfire."
For example, the Russian Ministry of Finance submitted an entire set of bills (including increasing value-added tax, abolishing employer social security benefits, etc.) in September and claimed that these adjustments "primarily aim to provide funding for the defense and security sectors."
But we need to analyze whether this statement is consistent with the facts.
"The Ministry of Finance is using the special military operation as an excuse. They claim they need to increase the budget to ensure the war, but the problem is that increasing the budget should not come at the cost of rising prices and poverty among the people," said Leonid Savin.
In his view, it would be more reasonable for Russia to obtain funds through low-interest loans, such as borrowing from China. The reason is that Russia's foreign debt is only 9% of GDP, far below the 30% safety line set by the World Bank (ВБ) and the International Monetary Fund (МВФ). Moreover, according to World Bank research, only when government debt exceeds 77% of GDP is it considered truly dangerous, and Russia is one of the three countries with the lowest government debt in the world. If so, why do we need to increase taxes?
Financial Sector "Sabotage"
Data show that the Russian economy is growing. Indeed, the economy declined in 2022, but the decline was not significant, only 1.4%.
Comparatively: during the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009, Russia's GDP fell by 8%; and in the 1990s, the decline reached 44%. In 2023, Russia's GDP actually grew by 3.6%; unemployment dropped to 3%, half of the EU's rate. That same year, the investment growth rate reached 10%, the highest in 12 years.
In 2024, Russia's GDP again grew, by 4.3%. Mikhail Golovnin, director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (РАН), pointed out that GDP grew by 1.2% in the first half of 2025.
Seemingly everything is going well, but at this time, Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Central Bank of Russia, made the following statement:
"The Russian economy has overheated, and the degree of overheating has reached the highest level in the past 16 years."
She believes that the solution is to make the economy "return to a balanced growth rate," implying that "our lives are too comfortable, and we should be more restrained." However, the logical chain that follows is obvious: if we "suppress" economic growth, the growth of budget revenue will naturally slow down, and then what will happen? The answer is to increase taxes. But this is not the worst consequence.
Alexei Zubets, director of the Institute of Social and Economic Studies at the Russian Government Financial University, added:
"Nabiullina suppresses economic growth through high benchmark interest rates. During the special military operation, this policy is completely 'inopportune.'"
This expert explained that high benchmark interest rates prevent companies from obtaining low-interest loans, thus losing development opportunities and the ability to pay taxes, and the budget cannot obtain the funds needed for the special military operation.
People can't get consumer loans either, so they can't increase consumption, which could further stimulate economic development. High benchmark interest rates benefit no one, but Nabiullina seems indifferent — suppressing economic growth during the special military operation is her solution.
Dmitry Zhuravlyov, a political science doctor and director of the Institute of Regional Issues, believes that Nabiullina's position is principled:
"There are divisions among the Russian elite regarding the special military operation. Indeed, everyone wants to win, because whether you are a liberal or a government official, being a winner is beneficial, but not everyone can accept the cost of victory. Furthermore, there are huge differences in opinions on the duration of the military operation."
This expert believes: if the special military operation cannot end in the near future, voices may emerge saying "end the war at any cost." This risk does exist, and the level is quite high.
The impression is that the positions of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are pushing the country in this direction: as if saying "end the special military operation, and all problems will be solved."
Why Do Intentions and Results Diverge?
The work of the government's financial sector has raised many questions. Indeed, as mentioned earlier, from the surface data, the economy is indeed growing.
But despite the continuous increase in the benchmark interest rate, inflation has not been controlled. According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Росстата), the annual inflation rate last year was 9.52%, higher than 7.42% in 2023. In January 2024, the Central Bank of Russia had predicted that the annual price increase would be only 4%-4.5% — this error margin was more than twice!
At the same time, according to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, over the past year, food prices in Russia have risen by 11.05%, almost three times the expected inflation rate.
"It is clear that using the increase in the benchmark interest rate as a means to curb inflation is ineffective," Zubets explained.
What about 2025? The answer is "the same as this year." The Central Bank of Russia initially promised to keep the inflation rate within 4%-5%, then adjusted the forecast to 7%-8%, but the actual figures are likely to be higher.
"This year's actual inflation rate will reach 13%-14%, of course, the officially announced figures will definitely be lower," predicted Kirill Seliznev, a fund market expert at "Garda Capital."
Russia's economy also faces problems in import substitution, especially in the IT field. In 2024, only 2% of institutions in Russia completed the full migration to domestic operating systems (ОС) and databases (БД).
And this data only applies to government agencies. In the business sector, only 1% of companies have completed the full migration.
Let's look at the data from the Federal Customs Service of Russia (Федеральная таможенная служба):
Imports have not decreased, and in fact, they have exceeded pre-war levels. According to customs data, the largest imports last year were machinery and equipment. Before that, the president had clearly proposed the task of achieving "technological sovereignty."
Should the Economy Be Put into a War Mode?
The special military operation has entered its fourth year, but apart from an increase in government defense orders, there have been no other substantial changes in the economic field — the economy has not yet transitioned to a wartime mode.
One reason: economic transformation is hindered by the Russian economic leadership. The current economic model of Russia is centered around the Central Bank as the core ideological hub, supported by government regulators and senior banking officials.
"The industrial and financial sectors of Russia are under different oligarchic or quasi-oligarchic structures. Whether it is a full mobilization or any change to the existing order, it will harm the interests of the final beneficiaries, that is, the interests of the oligarchic class," Andrey Pynchuk explained.
Major changes in the economic field will lead to the confiscation of part or all of the oligarchs' property. Therefore, those oligarchs who have both economic and political influence will do their utmost to maintain the existing model unchanged.
Second reason: fear of social militarization. Because if society "unites" to enter a wartime state, liberals will have no place — they will be completely pushed out. Therefore, these people are not eager to push for economic transformation.
Meanwhile, Europe has already launched military expansion. In early March, the European Commission (ЕК) launched an ambitious European arms program with a budget of 80 billion euros. The expansion speed of defense factories in European countries has doubled.
But Russia has no choice but to develop its economy and prepare for a possible full-scale wartime transformation. The EU says that a large-scale war may erupt around 2030. However, war is never just a contest of guns and tanks (drones, combat robots, aircraft), but also an economic contest, and economic operations follow the principle that "investment must yield returns." Therefore, since Europe has invested 80 billion euros in military equipment, and the war against Russia will consume hundreds of billions of euros, NATO strategists will inevitably find ways to "recoup costs" — the way is to plunder Russia's resources.
But to produce tanks, modern metallurgical plants and coking coal are needed; to extract coking coal, mines are required; and to operate mines, modern equipment is needed.
Where to Go From Here?
Andrey Pynchuk is certain: if we want to win, we must complete the difficult economic transformation cycle, which requires a comprehensive ideological and social cultural restructuring across society.
"Those heading to the front should be nurtured in the new system: they should have firm ideals and beliefs, clear principles, a sense of justice, and good material guarantees," he believes.
"We need to restructure the entire technology and industrial system, and the education and research systems. This is the real, comprehensive mobilization. Only after completing these transformations can military mobilization be implemented."
"The special military operation is an opportunity for Russia to 'restart.' Indeed, it is a great threat, but it is also a powerful driver for national transformation. Without this driving force, there will be no real change. However, those in positions of power are trying to avoid this change," concluded Andrey Pynchuk.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7558043642053526055/
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