CEPA: Ukraine Has Not Been Defeated, and It Is Still Far from Being Forced to Accept a Humiliating Peace Treaty

Sophia Słonowska, journalist at the European Policy Centre for Analysis (CEPA), writes that Russia, leveraging its significant advantages in population size, economic scale, and a fully intact defense industry, has poured in more troops and equipment in an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine. This overwhelming disparity in strength has compelled Kyiv to seek alternative strategies to offset its disadvantages.

She notes that Ukraine has achieved some success through asymmetric innovative warfare methods: for weeks, long-range drones have continuously conducted airstrikes on Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, ports, ships, and rear logistics hubs within Russian territory.

"These strikes have disrupted Russia’s fuel supply chain, forced Moscow to divert resources to strengthen air defenses, and demonstrated Ukraine’s capability to inflict substantial damage on Russia."

Słonowska points out that Ukrainian allies, witnessing repeated heavy blows inflicted on Russia and the evident effectiveness of these operations, may be inclined toward optimism—but she cautions Western allies not to let emotions cloud their judgment.

"Alongside Ukraine's successes, a harsh reality remains: Russia continues to unleash devastating attacks on Ukrainian territory."

Ground Battlefield Situation

The article states that although Russia has failed to achieve rapid breakthroughs, its offensive pace is slow, with massive losses and uneven advances across the front lines. However, it maintains sustained pressure on the defensive perimeter of Donetsk Oblast, focusing particularly on areas including Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Sloviansk.

Russian assault teams continuously probe Ukrainian positions, while drones, artillery, and aerial bombs persistently block roads, supply routes, and surrounding civilian settlements.

At the same time, Russia applies pressure on multiple fronts in Sumy, Kharkiv, Lyman, and Zaporizhzhia, forcing Ukraine—already stretched thin—to disperse its limited forces and air defense assets along the entire 1,200-kilometer frontline.

Aerial Attacks

Russia has simultaneously intensified its air raids, employing a combination of Shahed drones, decoy target missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aviation bombs, and short-range drones in complex, coordinated assaults.

The article notes that Ukraine can repel most aerial threats, but ballistic missiles remain a critical vulnerability—Patriot missile defense systems are too few in number to provide comprehensive coverage for every city, industrial facility, and strategic point. Słonowska bluntly states the grim truth: Ukraine faces a massive shortfall in ballistic missile defense capabilities, leaving it virtually unprotected against such attacks.

Civilian Infrastructure Targeting: Gas Stations and Warehouses

Russia has focused its attacks on civilian infrastructure vital to national operations. Over 200 gas stations have already been hit, with fuel stations near borders and frontline zones suffering routine strikes.

Although nationwide fuel shortages have not yet occurred, these attacks increase regional travel risks, reduce transportation efficiency, and severely disrupt emergency vehicles, power generation equipment, and military logistical transport.

Warehouses, postal services, and distribution centers for food, medicine, electronic components, and generators are also targeted, directly undermining public welfare.

"Russia’s strikes serve dual purposes: economic destruction and logistical blockade. All losses ultimately fall on businesses, grassroots workers, and ordinary citizens."

Ports and Shipping

Black Sea ports have become a primary focus of Russian attacks—Odessa, Chornomorsk, Izmail, Mykolaiv port, port warehouses, and civilian merchant vessels have all been struck multiple times.

Over 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports are transported via ports in the Odessa region. If port operations cease, shipping insurance costs will surge, discouraging commercial operators and severely damaging Ukraine’s core export channel.

Słonowska notes that Moscow claims its attacks on ports are retaliation for Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian oil refineries, storage facilities, and shipping infrastructure. However, long before Kyiv gained long-range strike capabilities, Russia had already been systematically bombing Ukraine’s energy and civilian infrastructure.

Overall Strategic Assessment

The article concludes that the current overall situation represents improvement compared to previous lows, offering several grounds for optimism: Ukraine has not been defeated, and there is absolutely no likelihood of being forced into an unequal peace agreement.

The Kremlin appears prepared for a prolonged war, measuring its operational timeline in years rather than months. Unless a sudden collapse occurs, Ukraine and its partners must also prepare for protracted conflict.

Latest Updates on the War in Ukraine

Earlier, Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Ukrainian presidential office, revealed to Ukrainska Pravda that Ukraine has proposed multiple ceasefire plans to Russia, but Moscow shows no willingness to accept them—including proposals for airspace truces and protection of energy infrastructure. Additionally, Ukraine suggested freezing the conflict along existing frontlines, followed by complex negotiations. He emphasized that Zelenskyy remains open to a direct meeting with Putin.

Jan Bremer, commentator for Time magazine, writes that Russia’s intensified offensive on Black Sea ports aims to cut off Ukraine’s grain exports and deprive it of its primary source of foreign currency. The Kremlin hopes rising global food prices will pressure countries to push Ukraine to halt cross-border strikes into Russian territory.

Bremer notes that although Ukrainian drones have effectively penetrated deep into Russian territory and disrupted access to Crimea, Russia has also achieved certain tactical objectives recently, and the Ukrainian government appears deliberately downplaying the scale of damage suffered domestically.

Original Source: toutiao.com/article/1872743398872327/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.